CONCACAF Gold Cup: Toronto Should Still Provide Home Comforts for Understrength Canadians

Canada vs Guadeloupe

This CONCACAF Gold Cup opener would appear to many to be a guaranteed Canadian victory.

I certainly will not predict otherwise when I shortly study the SBOTOP CONCACAF Gold Cup betting odds.

Yet while Canada are many people’s third favourites to lift the trophy this year (behind holders USA and record eight-time winners Mexico), Guadeloupe have shocked such opposition before.

Talking Points

You can see why they are firm underdogs.

This is only their fifth-ever appearance in the group stage and they had to come through the preliminaries to make it, with victories over Antigua & Barbuda and, on Tuesday, Guyana, in the second round of qualifying with a 2-0 victory, secured through an own goal and one from Andrew Gravillon.

Two years ago after reaching this stage, they lost all three of their matches as they made an early exit so it’s easy to see why even getting out of the group would amount to success this time around.

Yet in two of their previous four appearances at this level, Guadeloupe progressed to the knockout phase and, in 2007, went all the way to the semi-finals.

That included a group stage victory over Canada in their first ever showdown.

Their 2023 squad is heavily made up of a French overseas department, including those who ply their trade in Ligue 1 and Ligue 2, while the defender Andreaw Gravillon is on the books of Serie A side Torino.

Guadeloupe players were so joyous with securing qualification earlier this week, their singing could still be heard from the dressing room more than half an hour after the end of the game.

Yes, they are clearly outsiders.

Yes, this is a baptism of fire.

But don’t immediately write them off in what is an open group for, if they can create some CONCACAF Gold Cup highlights against the Canadians in Toronto, it will stand them in good stead ahead of meetings with Cuba and Guatemala.

John Herdman’s men are clear favourites as they bid for a first trophy since 2000. The two-time Gold Cup champions were beaten in their CONCACAF Nations League Final by the US last weekend, their first defeat since a 2-1 reverse to Morocco at last year’s World Cup – the first time they had qualified for the tournament in 36 years.

That they will be without arguably their three best players in Jonathan David (Lille), Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich) and Cyle Larin (Real Valladolid) is a big miss. For example, David has 25 goals in 42 appearances for his country.

In Qatar they lost all three of their group matches but showed in their first outing against Belgium that their qualification was not a fluke and, unlike some of the other main contenders, they appear to have some managerial stability with Herdman.

Certainly, it will be interesting to see how the US fare because, while Gregg Berhalter is set to return as the head coach, he will not begin work until after the Gold Cup and BJ Callaghan remains in charge on an interim basis.

At the same time, Herdman spoke out following their loss to the US last weekend, highlighting a lack of resources and preparation time as factors that were putting his side at a disadvantage.

All in all then, Canada should win this opener but will probably fall short when it matters.

History

This will be the third meeting between the nations in this competition and both have one win apiece.

In 2007, Guadeloupe secured a 2-1 win, thanks to first half goals from Jocelyn Angloma and David Fleurival with Ali Gerba replying for Canada in between.

That contest was in Miami.

When they met in Tampa, also in the group stages of the competition four years later, a Dwayne De Rosario penalty early in the second half proved the difference in Canada’s favour.

Betting Tip

Our odds show Canada on offer 1X2 @ 1.19 compared to Guadeloupe @ 10.50. That tells its own story really. Even the draw is not expected @ 6.00.

Their previous matches have been tight, of course, and a repeat of their most recent meeting, 12 years ago, is available @ 4.70 with Correct Score.

The goal options to take a look at vary from Over 2.75 @ 2.08 and Under 2.50 @ 1.95 to Total Goal 0-1 @ 3.15, 2-3 @ 1.86 and 4-6 @ 3.30.

I cannot see past the Canadians proving too strong on home turf right from the outset.

I did take a look at Double Chance Half Time Full Time @ 1.67 but have opted for a *** tip of First Half Asian Handicap Canada -0.75 @ 2.02.

 

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