World Cup 2026: South American Heavyweights Set for Tense Occasion

Colombia vs Brazil

I’ve always thought that playing for Brazil must be like turning out for Real Madrid or Manchester United.

Through good times and difficult times, the enduring appeal of that name evokes glamour and romance like no other.

That also means that winning is expected virtually every single time – even in a friendly or dead-rubber there is an expectation, as well as a desire from opponents looking to claim a prized scalp.

Ahead of this South American heavyweight clash, a World Cup 2026 qualifier which is far from a friendly or a dead-rubber, it is no different.

For Colombia would love nothing more than to beat the mighty Selecao, the world famous and five-time world champions Brazil.

Even without their influential captain, Casemiro, and the player considered their talisman, the injured Neymar, they are the nation everyone considers the benchmark, the nation to which others aspire to match.

There have been a few ding-dongs between these nations, mainly over the last three decades during which time Colombia have become more of a footballing threat so perhaps we can expect World Cup 2026 highlights in the Estadio Metropolitano.

Talking Points

So just who do you opt for in this encounter?

Brazil, who are unbeaten against Colombia in the last five games, or Colombia who are unbeaten in the CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup qualifiers but have just won one game.

A narrow 1-0 home win over Venezuela in September has since been followed by three successive draws against Chile, Uruguay, and Ecuador, picking up solitary points against the latter two nations last month.

Colombia were on course to claim maximum points against Uruguay courtesy of goals from James Rodriguez and Mateus Uribe, but the 87^th minute dismissal of goalkeeper Camilo Vargas for a foul inside the penalty area was followed by a penalty equaliser from Darwin Nunez to rescue a point.

A couple of days later, they had more spot-kick woes as they missed a penalty of their own in a goalless game away to Ecuador.

Colombia missed out on the trip to Qatar for last year’s World Cup, which was a big disappointment but have recovered and remain unbeaten in the past 15 games (W10, D5).

Ahead of this one, right-back Santiago Arias has withdrawn due to injury, so FC Cincinnati teammate Yerson Mosquera is expected to start on the right side of a back four, while Carlos Cuesta will hope to retain his place at centre-back ahead of Yerry Mina.

Zenit St. Petersburg attacker Mateo Cassierra has also pulled out due to injury, but Liverpool’s Luis Diaz has been called up less than a week after his father was released following 12 days in captivity.

Their reunion was an emotional scene.

After victories over Bolivia at home and Peru on the road in September, Brazil’s performances have been below expectations.

They were held at home by Venezuela last month before a 2-0 reverse to Uruguay.

Ederson has been forced to withdraw from the squad due to a foot injury and joins Neymar, Casemiro, Richarlison, and Eder Militao on the sidelines, while Gabriel Jesus has been called up despite missing Arsenal’s last five matches with a muscle problem.

There’s one point between four teams in the South American qualifying pool and, given world champions Argentina are seemingly well on their way with four wins from four (12 pts), these sides are among those with a bit of catching up to do.

Alongside Uruguay and Venezuela, Brazil are on seven points with Colombia on six. They have not lost in their campaign but have only won once so far with three draws.

The fact it’s all to play for merely adds to the intrigue around this one.

History

Brazil have won 21 meetings with 11 draws and three Colombia victories.

Their very first contest was in the Copa America in 1945 when Brazil, still 13 years away from their first world title, ran out 3-0 winners.

On that occasion, Heleno De Freitas, Jayme, and Jorginho Ceciliano were the first half scorers.

Not until some 40 years later – May 1985 – did Colombia manage to record a victory over their rivals.

Their 1-0 friendly success in Bogata was secured through a Victor Lugo goal. That is one of only three Colombian victories, the only competitive victories arriving in the 1991 and 2015 Copa America.

Their most high profile contest came in the 2014 World Cup when the hosts ran out 2-1 winners in the quarter-finals, courtesy of Chelsea past and present.

Thiago Silva opened the scoring before David Luiz doubled the lead with a long-range free kick.

Colombia reduced the deficit when Rodríguez converted a penalty.

James’ sixth goal of the tournament was enough for him to win the Golden Boot award. He also became the first player to score in his first five career World Cup matches since Peru’s Teófilo Cubillas (across the 1970 and 1978 tournaments).

The two nations last met twice in a month, two years ago in World Cup qualifying, when a goalless draw in Barranquilla was followed by a 1-0 Brazil victory in São Paulo when Lucas Paquetá, now of West Ham, netted the only goal.

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP World Cup 2026 betting odds edge towards Brazil in a variety of ways, including First Half 1X2 @ 2.82, First Half Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 2.25, 1X2 @ 2.20, and Asian Handicap -0.50 @ 2.21.

Colombia are attractively priced also, such as First Half 1X2 @ 3.80, First Half Asian +0.25 @ 1.66, 1X2 @ 2.87, and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.95.

Another 1-0 Brazil win will pay out @ 5.40 in Correct Score, whereas a goalless draw just like last time on Colombian soil is on offer @ 6.20, also with Correct Score.

Goal options vary from over 2.25 @ 2.19 to Total Goals 0-1 @ 2.29, 2-3 @ 1.85, and 4-6 @ 5.20.

Colombia have shown they can compete with the best, and I think this will be a close, tense contest so I am predicting honours even.

 

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