Finland vs Ukraine
With reigning world champions France far ahead of the pack, Ukraine and Finland are left to fight for second place in UEFA’s World Cup 2022 qualifying Group D.
The Ukrainians are currently in that second spot despite drawing all five of their matches in qualifying thus far.
But the World Cup 2022 betting odds still have them as slight favourites against the Finns, who have struggled to pick up wins – and score goals – during much of this calendar year.
Talking Points
Finland need front two to find the net
Finland have been far from impressive in 2021. They have just two victories in their 11 matches in all competitions this calendar year. One was their 1-0 win over Denmark in Euro 2020, which has a huge asterisk over it due to the Christian Eriksen incident.
And their second win was a 1-0 victory over minnows Kazakhstan in World Cup qualifying. They had drawn their first two games against Bosnia and Herzegovina and Ukraine, then lost 2-0 away to France in their most recent outing.
The Finns do not employ many fancy tactics. They simply play their preferred 3-5-2 formation in every game, defend as solidly as possible, and hope their front two of Teemu Pukki and Joel Pohjanpalo can deliver the goals.
Pukki, who has 30 goals in 96 caps, has scored three of Finland’s four goals in qualifying thus far and is now just two goals shy of matching Jari Litmanen’s record of 32 goals for his country.
Meanwhile, Pohjanpalo has 11 goals in 48 caps and has scored the team’s last two goals in their 1-0 wins against Denmark and Kazakhstan. Those are the only goals Finland have scored in their last eight games in all competitions.
The Finns’ reliance on their front two for goals is so great that the last Finnish player to score besides Pukki or Pohjanpalo is Robin Lod back in November last year.
Pukki has scored two goals in seven games for struggling Norwich in the Premier League, while Pohjanpalo has yet to find the net in three appearances for Turkish club Rizespor.
Changes in Ukraine
Ukraine are still searching for their first win under new coach Oleksandr Petrakov. The 64-year-old took over on an interim basis when Andriy Shevchenko stepped down after leading his country to the quarter-finals of Euro 2020.
Petrakov’s reign began with three consecutive draws in last month’s international break. They could only draw 2-2 away to Kazakhstan in his debut match, with the hosts grabbing a late equaliser shortly after Ukraine had scored themselves in stoppage time.
The Ukrainians redeemed themselves by grabbing a 1-1 draw with France, the second time they had held the reigning world champions to a stalemate in qualifying.
But those World Cup 2022 results mean the Ukrainians remain winless in qualifying, with five draws in their first five games.
Ukraine will be missing a couple of key players as they look for their first win in Helsinki. Manchester City midfielder Oleksandr Zinchenko is out due to injury. Meanwhile, Atalanta midfielder Ruslan Malinovskyi was not included in the squad due to a supposed falling out with Petrakov.
Petrakov can still call upon the likes of captain Andriy Yarmolenko (42 goals in 102 caps) and striker Roman Yaremchuk (11 goals in 32 caps) to lead the attack.
However, Petrakov has work to do to fix a defence that has kept just one clean sheet in its last 19 competitive fixtures.
History
This will only be the fourth time Finland and Ukraine will meet in international play. They also met in qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, with Ukraine winning both games. Joel Pohjanpalo scored in Finland’s 1-2 defeat at home.
Meanwhile, they drew 1-1 in their first meeting in this qualifying campaign in Kyiv. Teemu Pukki scored a late penalty to equalise after Junior Moraes had put the home side in front 10 minutes from time.
Betting Tip
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Finland vs Ukraine | 1X2 Draw @ 3.15 |
| October 10, 00:00 (GMT+8) |
SBOTOP odds have Ukraine installed as slight 2.24 favourites, with Finland priced at 2.98. Meanwhile, a draw is at 3.15.
Based on both teams’ uninspiring form at the moment, this match seems destined for another draw. The attacking firepower appears to be fairly even with Ukraine missing both Zinchenko and Malinovskyi.
Pukki and Pohjanpalo will like their chances to score against Ukraine’s porous defence, but even with home advantage, I’m not at all confident the Finns can get the win they need to overtake Ukraine for second spot.
| A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR () BETS ARE WORTH: |
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|---|---|---|---|
 = €20 (Highly confident) |
 = €10 (CONFIDENT) |
= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT) |
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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