UEFA Nations League: Sweden’s Last Chance in France

France vs Sweden

Sweden’s spot in League A of the UEFA Nations League is hanging by a thread. Despite their win over Croatia over the weekend, the Swedes are still stuck in last place in Group A3 and are in danger of getting relegated to League B.

However, Sweden have one last chance to stay up as they take on reigning world champions France at the Stade de France.

France have already secured top spot in Group A3 — and a place in the Nations League Finals — with their victory over Portugal. As a result, manager Didier Deschamps could field a much-changed squad against Sweden, which could swing the UEFA Nations League 2020 betting odds closer to the Swedes’ favour.

Talking Points

Changes could be coming for France

UEFA Nations League: France could have a new squad against Sweden as they've already secured the top spot in Group A3 — France boss Didier Deschamps gives instructions to his squad during a recent match against Portugal

France are off to the Nations League Finals. Les Bleus sealed their place in the final four by beating reigning Nations League champions Portugal 1-0 in Lisbon thanks to an N’Golo Kante goal.

The French still won despite being without superstar striker Kylian Mbappe, who had to sit out due to injury. In Mbappe’s absence, Deschamps made a somewhat surprising decision to play with Kingsley Coman alongside Anthony Martial up front, with Antoine Griezmann in behind. Griezmann made up for Mbappe’s absence as he expertly orchestrated the France attack.

With qualification now secured, Deschamps will now have the luxury of giving other players in his squad a chance to play in their final group game against Sweden.

But even if Deschamps does make several changes to his side, the French have so much depth that they should still have a significant talent advantage over the Swedes.

Olivier Giroud and Marcus Thuram came on as second-half substitutes in Portugal and could be handed starts in the group finale.

Despite hardly featuring for Chelsea, Giroud continues to score goals for Les Bleus. The 34-year-old is up to 42 career international goals after bagging a brace in France’s 7-1 friendly win over Ukraine in October.

Meanwhile, Thuram recently bagged a brace for Borussia Monchengladbach in a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid in the Champions League.

Sweden still alive

Sweden’s hopes of staying up in League A are still alive after they beat Croatia 2-1 at home. That win put Sweden tied with Croatia on three points, but after to their poor UEFA Nations League 2020 results, the Swedes are still in last place due to fewer goals scored.

Sweden’s rising young star, Dejan Kulusevski, opened the scoring with his first career international goal. The 20-year-old is also having a fine debut season with Juventus and appears to be on his way toward filling Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s shoes as the country’s next talisman.

The Swedes could certainly use the significant injection of quality that Kulusevski provides in attack. Prior to their win against Croatia, the Swedes had scored just once in their first four Nations League matches, tied for the lowest total in League A.

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But while Sweden have struggled going forward, they are still a well-organised defensive unit that’s capable of frustrating even the top teams.

France found this out first-hand in their first Nations League meeting back in June. Although Sweden lost 1-0 at home, they limited Les Bleus to just one shot on target.

The potential absence of France’s first-choice players should only improve the Swedes’ chances of limiting the French attack — and in turn, picking up a positive result in Paris.

History

France and Sweden have faced off 23 times previously. France hold the 11-6 edge in terms of wins, with five draws.

Les Bleus won their first Nations League meeting 1-0 thanks to a lone Kylian Mbappe goal. But in their previous meeting in 2017, Sweden upset the French with a 2-1 victory thanks to a stoppage-time winner by Ola Toivonen.

Betting Tip

	France vs Sweden	Sweden Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 2.06
	November 18, 03:45 (GMT+8)

SBOTOP odds have France as significant 1.62 favourites to end their Nations League campaign with a home win. Sweden are priced at 6.00 to cause an upset, while a draw is at 3.40.

Sweden seems to be a bit underestimated in this matchup, though. While they have not been at their best during the Nations League, they showed in their win against Croatia that they still possess some decent quality in their squad.

Moreover, the fact that France have essentially nothing left to play for and could rest a number of their stars, coupled with the Swedes playing for their lives in League A, points to a competitive affair that makes Sweden a smart pick on the Asian Handicap market.