Serie A: Who is the Real Power in Red-Hot Rome?

Lazio vs AS Roma

It’s time for the second Derby della Capitale of the season in Serie A and the stakes are delicately poised.

There are just two points between the two rivals from the Italian capital, yet that is enough to separate them by two positions and, crucially, from the Champions League qualification places they both crave.

Lazio sit in third, Roma in fifth (defending champions Milan split them in fourth) and it is against that backdrop that we can surely expect some Serie A highlights on Sunday teatime.

Talking Points

So, who is the real power in Rome?

Well, based on recent years, Lazio still have the Serie A edge but it is close and this contest should prove that once more.

If you are a football follower outside of the Italian capital, chances are you may not fully appreciate what this game actually means to those involved.

This derby is one of the most passionately felt matches in world football and history suggests a feisty encounter.

Between 2000 and 2020 alone, this fixture produced 24 red cards, at least two more than any other fixture in Europe’s top five leagues.

It is also now a meeting of two managers whose career paths have taken on very different routes.

Maurizio Sarri has managed more than 20 different sides, with Chelsea the only one of those not in Italy. He also spent a number of years managing amateur and lower-league clubs. On the other hand, Mourinho has spent most of his career with Europe’s top clubs.

At the start of the season he also piled the pressure on his compatriot by claiming he expected Roma to be in the running for the title this term following a summer of big spending and Mourinho has not been afraid to bite back.

Both sides have experienced mixed results in the past week.

After a goalless draw at Bologna last Saturday ended their winning streak – which included a surprise success over leaders Napoli – Lazio were knocked out of the Europa Conference League by Dutch club AZ Alkmaar on Thursday night, prompting Sarri to suggest his squad was not deep enough to cope with both competitions.

Roma also experienced mixed results.

They went down to a surprise (and at times controversial) 4-3 home defeat to Sassuolo in which they played the entire second half with 10 men following Marash Kumbulla’s dismissal – a red card which means he will be suspended this weekend.

They then went to Spain and saw off Real Sociedad to advance to the Europa League quarter-finals.

That prompted Mourinho to have a dig at his city rivals as they were eliminated from a competition Roma won last term.

The Portuguese manager will actually be absent from the touchline this weekend as he serves a two-match ban and, along with Kumbulla, he will also be without Rick Karsdorp who is facing a spell on the sidelines.

On a more positive note, captain Lorenzo Pellegrini may return from a worrying looking head injury sustained against Sociedad, while Gianluca Mancini should slot back into the defensive line in place of Kumbulla.

Sarri will continue to be without the talismanic Ciro Immobile up front and Matias Vecino is suspended so Danilo Cataldi should deputise.

History

Lazio edged out Roma 1-0 in the Rome derby on in November, thanks to a first-half goal from midfielder Felipe Anderson.

The corresponding match last term saw Lazio edge a five goal thriller.

Anderson proved the matchwinner on that occasion too with Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Pedro on target for the home side in a frenetic start before Roger Ibanez and a Jordan Veretout penalty kept Roma in touch.

Roma have won 25 out of their 63 clashes with Lazio who have tasted success in 22 of the encounters.

Betting Tip

Roma have the edge with the SBOTOP  Serie A betting odds but it is mighty close.

In fact, both are on offer with exactly the same Asian Handicap bet ­in -0.25 @ 2.35.

Jose Mourinho’s men are also priced 1X2 @ 2.64, which compares with Lazio who can be backed 1X2 @ 2.75.

The expected close contest is also shown by the offer of 1X2 Draw @ 2.80 which is my *** prediction.

Before you take my word for it, however, it is worth considering a raft of other options including over 2.25 goals @ 2.20, under 1.75 @ 2.33, total goal 0-1 @ 2.41, 2-3 @ 1.93 and 4-6 @ 5.40.

A re-run of their meeting earlier this season – Correct Score 1-0 – will pay out @ 6.40, whereas a repeat of last season is available @ 50.00 with Correct Score 3-2.

 

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