Serie A: Major Top Four Battle in Rome

AS Roma vs AC Milan

With Napoli running away with the 2022-23 Serie A title, the fight for a place in the Champions League is turning into an interesting sub-plot as we head into the final weeks of the season.

Napoli, Lazio, and Juventus occupy the first three spots, and AC Milan are in fourth place right now. However, I Rossoneri are level with the fifth-seeded I Giallorossi at 56 points and a +14 goal difference, and these two clubs are going to duel at the Stadio Olimpico this Saturday.

AS Roma could’ve been solo fourth if they won against Atalanta on Monday, but they didn’t, while AC Milan extended their unbeaten run to four straight league games when they defeated Lecce.

Talking Points

Who will be available for Mourinho?

Jose Mourinho is looking to field his best starting XI after rotating his squad against Atalanta last time out, but he is still dealing with injuries to key players.

Paulo Dybala came off the bench on Monday, but he limped off the pitch after being hurt in a tackle by Atalanta’s Jose Luis Palomino. Fortunately for AS Roma, the Argentine forward’s ankle didn’t have sprained ligaments, although he was listed as questionable for Saturday given his injury history.

I Giallorossi are hoping that Dybala is 100-per cent fit because they need his goals. He is the team’s only double-digit scorer so far this season with 15 goals, and he has also dished out seven assists.

Should Mourinho decide not to start Dybala, Stephan El Shaarawy or Andrea Belotti will take his place alongside Lorenzo Pellegrini and Tammy Abraham up front. El Shaarawy feels like the better choice since he has recorded six goals this year.

Bryan Cristante should return to the starting lineup with fellow defenders Diego Llorente and Chris Smalling out for a few weeks due to injuries. Cristante has played mostly in central midfield this year, but he can play in the back three too.

Leao auditions for his next big payday

AC Milan aren’t immune to the injury bug either, as Olivier Giroud and Tommaso Pobega are doubtful for Saturday. However, they still have enough firepower on the frontline.

Rafael Leao, a hot commodity in the transfer market today, will have a prominent role up front for I Rossoneri. This season, the 23-year-old has recorded 13 goals and nine assists thus far. I Rossoneri will need more from the Portuguese winger if they are to hold on to the final top four spot.

Much has been said about AC Milan’s need to freshen up their attacking corps this summer, but the club will try to hold on to Rafael Leao, although their extension talks have stalled.

Because his current contract expires in 2024, Leao has several suitors lined up for him, but he has yet to reveal his next move on whether he stays or leaves Italy.

History

AC Milan have won four of their last six Serie A games against AS Roma (D2), which is as many victories as in their previous 16 encounters (D5, L7). Should they win or draw this weekend, AC Milan could go undefeated in seven consecutive league matches against AS Roma for the first time since 1996 (17 straight matches).

They have also won their last two away Serie A games against AS Roma, although they haven’t won three straight matches at the Stadio Olimpico since 1990 (four straight matches).

However, AC Milan’s recent road form in Serie A is poor because they’ve lost four of their last seven away matches (W2, D1), which is as many losses as in their previous 53 such games in the competition (W38, D12).

These two teams met earlier this year in San Siro, where the game ended in a 2-2 draw as Roger Ibanez and Tammy Abraham scored within the last six minutes to salvage a point after Pierre Kalulu and Tommaso Pobega gave AC Milan a two-goal lead.

Betting Tip

With so much on the line, we’d expect nothing less than a tight affair, and the SBOTOP Serie A 2023 odds agree. Because they’re playing at home, AS Roma have a slight edge at 2.62, but AC Milan are at 2.71 in the 1X2 market. We believe that going for a draw at 2.86 is your best bet, which is a replay of their reverse fixture last January. Moreover, we can expect several Serie A 2023 highlights to emerge from this particular fixture, so going for either Over 2.00 at 1.87 is not a bad idea.

 

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