Serie A: Champions Meet Champions-Elect After Euro Blows

Inter Milan vs Napoli

The champions-elect against the champions.

Both teams are in desperate need of a pick-me-up after bowing out of the Champions League this week to Spanish opposition.

The exits for Inter Milan (on penalties to Atletico Madrid) and Napoli (to Barcelona) mean there are no Italian clubs remaining in the pinnacle of European football this season.

Yet that is where the synergy between the two clubs ends.

For while one side is the runaway leaders of Serie A and already boasts a trophy in the cabinet this term, the other is on its third different manager of the campaign and saw its title defence all but over even before Father Christmas came down the chimney.

Talking Points

The disappointment felt by Napoli in midweek was clear as they had chances to take the tie to the Catalans. It is a disappointment which has become more apparent in recent days after it emerged star striker Victor Osimhen sustained a muscle injury.

The Nigeria international has scored 13 goals in 24 appearances across all competitions this season and, with the defending champions currently seventh in Serie A, seven points off a Champions League spot, they can scarcely contemplate defeat in the San Siro.

That aside, Jens Cajuste and Cyril Ngonge recently returned from thigh injuries, while Piotr Zielinski, who has been linked with a summer move to Inter, is available again after being left out of the Champions League squad.

For the league leaders, manager Simone Inzaghi said last weekend that the Scudetto is not yet in the bag.

It is a hard claim to take seriously. Until their midweek reverse in a penalty shoot-out, Inter had won 13 games in a row across all competitions and remain on course for more than 100 points. They score goals with combinations that once seemed like joking exaggerations.

While Marko Arnautovic, Juan Cuadrado and Stefano Sensi are still unavailable, Brazilian wing-back Carlos Augusto could be available to return from a muscular injury.

Sunday night’s contest could prove a milestone for captain Lautaro Martinez as he aims to score the goal that would see him net 10 times at home in each of the last four seasons, a tally only Erling Haaland has recorded across Europe’s top five leagues during the same period.

With one more goal, midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu will reach double figures for just the second time in his career. He previously netted 11 for Hamburg a decade ago.

Napoli will battle to the end but Inter appear in a league of their own – 16 points clear at the top – and the 2023 champions will need to turn on the style of last season and produce Serie A 2024 highlights if they are to halt the juggernaut of a side which seems destined to take their crown.

History

Inter have a distinct upper hand in their clashes with 74 victories compared to 50 Napoli successes and a further 43 draws.

That includes a 1-0 success in the corresponding fixture last season when Edin Dzeko was the matchwinner.

In fact, they have only lost once at home to Napoli in in the past decade and that was in 2011 when Hugo Campagnaro, Christian Maggio and Marek Hamšík scored the goals in a 3-0 Napoli triumph.

Napoli did win in the San Siro in the quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia in 2019 when Fabian Ruiz netted the only goal en route to a 2-1 aggregate win.

Earlier this season, Inter won in resounding fashion in Naples with Çalhanoğlu, Nicolò Barella and Marcus Thuram the goal-getters in a 3-0 success.

And, of course, only two months ago, Inter tasted victory in the final of the Italian Super Cup in Saudi Arabia when Martinez scored a last-gasp winner to break Napoli hearts and ensure I Nerazzurri lifted the silverware.

That added another trophy to the silverware haul for last season’s Italian Cup and Super Cup winners.

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Serie A 2024 betting odds show Inter are very firm favourites, no surprise given the recent form.

The home side are priced 1X2 @ 1.57 compared to Napoli @ 4.88 and the draw @ 3.85.

With Asian Handicap odds, Inter are on offer -1.25 @ 2.42 and Napoli some would off with a price of +0.75 @ 2.11.

Two sides with attacking prowess, you can get odds of @ 2.21 on Over 3.00 goals, Total Goal 2-3 @ 1.96 and 4-6 @ 2.92 in contrast with 0-1 @ 3.87. A repeat of last season’s encounter is actually my tip.

 

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