Strength in Depth Could Be the Difference at Villa Park

Aston Villa vs Brentford

When I saw the Aston Villa line-up at the start of their midweek Premier League contest with champions Manchester City, my first thoughts were manager Unai Emery must be rotating his squad as they embark on a congested fixture programme.

Understandable, really, given they defeated Wolves on Easter Saturday, host Brentford this Saturday afternoon, and then take on Lille in the first leg of their Europa Conference quarterfinal next Thursday.

What I didn’t realise until the following morning was the extent to which they had been hit by injuries too.

In what was accurately described as a tired performance from a depleted side at City, Villa were missing main striker Ollie Watkins, lost goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez to illness just before kick-off, and were also without their suspended captain John McGinn.

In addition, Emery also opted to leave Pau Torres, Leon Bailey, and Youri Tielemans among the substitutes, presumably thinking he could ill afford to lose any more key men in the middle of a hectic schedule.

When they continue their top-four push against the Bees on Saturday, expect some of those names to return to the starting lineup.

Talking Points

Not that Emery was let down by any of his stand-ins in midweek.

Indeed, if Martinez is not ready in time, back-up goalkeeper Robin Olsen is a safe pair of hands who could not have done anything about the four goals his side shipped at the Etihad Stadium.

After back-to-back draws at home to Manchester United and Brighton, Brentford also hope to have some key figures back for the weekend.

Bryan Mbeumo has been pushing for a first start since early December, having made substitute appearances against Burnley, United, and the Seagulls.

Meanwhile, Kevin Schade stepped up his return from an adductor injury by scoring a penalty in a behind-closed-doors friendly on Tuesday.

While Brentford are continuing to put points between themselves and the bottom three, they are doing so slowly and unconvincingly and are now winless in eight league games, including five at home.

On saying that, stealing a point from a club of United’s calibre should be good for them in the long run—although it would have been daylight robbery had they lost—maybe not much in the standings, but maybe in morale.

The Bees are currently in 15^th place and six points above the relegation zone, which is a healthy gap and further proof of the fine job manager Thomas Frak is overseeing.

He has had to cope without key men for long spells, and a major factor in their underwhelming form has been a lack of goals from Ivan Toney, although that is hardly any wonder as the England hopeful had, until recently, been out of action for some time.

Frank has worked wonders since taking charge at Brentford in 2018.

The club has been in transition for a few years—from Championship to top tier, from Griffin Park to Gtech Community Stadium, from tiki-taka style to a more counterattacking high press—and a period of stability will do just fine. Keeping hold of Frank is key to that.

He will no doubt oversee a few more Premier League 2024 highlights between now and the end of the season. I just expect Villa to have too much for them this time.

History

This will be just the 20^th meeting between the teams.

It all began in September 1935, when they met in a League Division One encounter in which Dai Astley and Pongo Waring scored the goals in a 2-1 Villa success.

The return fixture at Villa Park three months later ended 2-2.

After six Villa victories and three draws in league and cup, it wasn’t until January 2017 that the Bees managed to defeat their illustrious opponents in a 3-0 victory at their former ground, Griffin Park.

The scorers that day were Lasse Yibe (two) and Nico Yennaris.

Of their five Premier League meetings to date, Brentford have won once—a 2-1 home success two seasons ago when Yoane Wissa and Mads Roerslev cancelled out a Danny Ings opener for the Villains.

Brentford have never won at Villa Park and were beaten 4-0 in the corresponding fixture last season when Leon Bailey, Ings (two, one penalty), and Watkins were on target, with three of the goals coming inside the opening quarter of an hour.

That day Villa were managed by Aaron Danks, a few days after the club had sacked Steven Gerrard and a few days before they appointed Unai Emery.

Earlier this season, Villa won 2-1 at Brentford, as Alex Moreno and Watkins scored late on after Keane Lewis-Potter had opened the scoring.

Overall, Villa have won eight of their meetings with seven draws and four Brentford triumphs.

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Premier League 2024 betting odds favour the home side, and so do I.

I don’t think it will be easy mind, given the way the Bees performed against United on Easter Saturday, when they gained a last gasp draw in a match they dominated for long spells—a result they followed up with a spirited display versus Brighton.

Another 2-1 triumph for Emery’s men will pay out @ 7.60 with Correct Score, whereas a repeat of last season offers big bucks @ 32.00 with Correct Score.

For me, a third game in a week is where squad strength becomes an advantage, and that is why I have to back the hosts First Half 1X2 @ 2.18 as my prediction.

 

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