Premier League: A Wounded City Can be Quite an Animal

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

“Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned”, so the old saying goes and that could easily be applied to the Premier League this weekend and the reigning champions Manchester City.

After three straight domestic defeats (two in the league, one in the League Cup), they certainly will be determined to get back to winning ways.

That potentially spells very bad news for Brighton who have never won at City (with 11 defeats and two draws in their 13 league meetings) and are not expected to start now.

Talking Points

It was in December 2018 when City last suffered successive Premier League defeats, losing at home to Crystal Palace and away to Leicester City.

They dropped only three further points all season after that double jolt and went onto win the title – ironically, clinching it on the south coast at Brighton.

Now they must recover again after losing in the league at Wolves and at Arsenal just under a fortnight ago.

On that occasion, they had plenty of possession but lacked their normal thrust and sharpness, with striker Erling Haaland reduced to the role of a virtual spectator.

Indiscipline spilled over at the final whistle too as a clutch of City players including Haaland and Kyle Walker were involved in a heated exchange with a number of Arsenal’s backroom staff.

Pep Guardiola’s side will be bitterly disappointed with their past two league results and will still be hurting from conceding late on at Arsenal.

Yet history shows City have the quality and character to return to their best swiftly, and that could well mean Premier League 2023 highlights at the Etihad this weekend.

If City are a wounded animal, then they face an opponent who will not be cowed by reputation.

This is merely the latest leg of Brighton’s epic journey under the passionate gaze of a 44 year-old Brescia-born coach, regarded by many as one of the finest to make it into the Premier League since Guardiola arrived in Manchester.

A manager who is admired by many and, as his side travel to the champions just two points behind them, is already being eyed as a potential Guardiola replacement once his Etihad Stadium era ends.

Brighton knew about the Italian manager since his days at Sassuolo, who had top-eight finishes in two consecutive seasons and were admirers of his brand of attack-minded football. The English club imagined a time where an approach would be inevitable.

Last season, the Seagulls, nowhere near being among the six biggest clubs in England, finished the season in sixth place and were a penalty shootout away from the FA Cup final.

Despite another summer losing many of their best players, they continue to defy the odds and punch above their weight.

They have shown that in their most recent two matches, coming from 2-0 down to draw with former European champions Marseille – in the club’s first European campaign in its 122-year history – and also coming from behind to gain a point against Liverpool last time out.

If they can hold off this wounded animal on Saturday, it will be one of their greatest triumphs yet.

History

Since their very first meeting in the FA Cup back almost a century ago – February 1924 – City have always held the upper hand. In total, they have enjoyed 19 victories and tasted defeats just six times with a further five draws.

That included their most recent meeting on the south coast in May when Phil Foden and Julio Enciso traded goals. That was the penultimate league match of the season by which time City had already regained the title.

The corresponding fixture last season – a year ago this weekend – saw City run out 3-1 winners with Haaland (two, one penalty) and Kevin de Bruyne the goal-getters. Leandro Trossard (now of Arsenal) replied for the Seagulls.

Their very first meeting in 1924 saw City emerge 5-1 winners in the FA Cup third round tie.

City have won 11 of their last 13 meetings too with last season’s draw and one reverse – in May 2021. Again, that came after they had been crowned champions.

Ilkay Gundogan and Foden put them in front before Trossard, Adam Webster, and Dan Burn secured a 3-2 Brighton victory.

Betting Tip 

Few bet against City, especially at home, and the SBOTOP Premier League 2023 betting odds are no different.

The home side are priced 1X2 @ 1.42 and Asian Handicap -1.50 @ 2.16 with Brighton out as far as 1X2 @ 5.80 and Asian Handicap +1.00 @ 2.28.

A draw @ 4.60 may tempt some, but the law of averages suggest City will end their run of three domestic defeats.

Another 3-1 success will pay out @ 8.50 with Correct Score, and I do think there will be a few goals from two sides who like to – and are very good at – attack.

Goal options include over 3.75 @ 2.20, total 2-3 @ 2.33 and 4-6 @ 2.19. If it is tight, then total goal 0-1 @ 7.20 will earn you a nice payday.

Brighton were excellent in beating Manchester United and drawing with Liverpool last time out, yet this could be one game too far.

 

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