Premier League: This Manchester Derby has a Sky Blue Hue

Manchester City vs Manchester United

The eyes of the Premier League, and indeed the world, will be on Manchester on Sunday afternoon becaue it’s Derby Day, one of the biggest dates in the sporting calendar.  

Manchester City are gathering pace, as they do at this time each year. The Premier League 2024 betting odds have backed Pep Guardiola’s team from the off, and their destiny is in their own hands. Meanwhile Erik Ten Hag’s Manchester United are trying desperately hard to keep pace with the leading pack.

It’s second versus sixth, Sky Blue versus Red, and the Manchester bragging rights are up for grabs. Despite their current difficulties, United fans will walk into work with a spring in their step if they can somehow beat their noisy neighbours.  

Both teams negotiated FA Cup fifth round ties in midweek but in contrasting styles; while City slaughtered Luton Town 6-2 as Erling Haaland plundered five goals, United squeezed past Nottingham Forest with an 89^th minute Casemiro strike. 

For the Sky Blues to be priced at SBOTOP odds of 1.25 in the Manchester derby must be hard to take for diehard Red Devils fans; but that’s the reality and it might be best for them to watch from behind the sofa!  

Talking Points

City at full strength

After working with injuries to key players in the first half of the campaign Guardiola has a full pack to work with, with centre back Josko Gvardiol the only doubt. But such is the depth of Manchester City’s squad that Guardiola has at least two top class alternatives for each position, and often more. Competition for places is fierce and some in-form players are bound to miss out; so who will make the starting eleven to face the Red Devils?

Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne, recently re-united after spells out with injury, are surely dead certs. While Haaland scored five against the Hatters, De Bruyne made four assists, and the two are certain to produce goals when they work together. The red hot Phil Foden, midfield ace Rodri, centre back Ruben Dias and keeper Ederson were all rested for the Luton game and they almost certainly will slot back in. 

I suspect the other five places will be taken by Kyle Walker, Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji in defence; John Stones will be partnered with Rodri and the final place will be between Julian Alvarez and Bernardo Silva.

Whichever eleven starts for City…it will be some team.              

Key absences make United vulnerable

Things don’t look quite so bright over at Old Trafford. Since Autumn the Red Devils have been out of the title race and they crashed out of Europe in December, so Casemiro’s last gasp winner against Nottingham Forest was crucial in terms of keeping the season alive. The win sets up a mouth-watering quarter final against Liverpool but United will start as underdogs for that game, so the last thing on the table may well be a top four place, which is currently eight points away.       

Last week’s 2-1 defeat to Fulham exposed United’s weaknesses at both ends of the pitch with some important players missing, and they will sidelined again for the derby. After a slow start to his Premier League career striker Rasmus Hojlund has been in superb form recently, but he is out for three weeks; and against the Cottagers United were toothless. Marcus Rashford has offered very little for some time and Hojlund’s return can’t come soon enough.  

Ten Hag’s team is likely to be busy at the other end of the pitch and the absence of Luke Shaw, with a long standing muscle injury, is a big miss. His pace, positional sense and tackling ability are crucial to United’s game, as is the skill and toughness of centre back Lisandro Martinez, but the Argentine World Cup winner could be out until April, by which time United’s season might well be over.      

The Red Devils’ Premier League 2024 results have been pretty impressive of late, up until the defeat to Fulham; but I think this derby will be too hot for Ten Hag’s team to handle.

History

Manchester United still have the upper hand in terms of head to head meetings with their city rivals, winning 31 to 24 in all competitions since 1993. But the tide has been turning rapidly; the Sky Blues have won five of the last six encounters, scoring 18 goals and conceding seven, include a 3-0 win at Old Trafford earlier this season.      

Both teams have won five from the last six games but the nearness of their recent form masks the reality. While City are looking relentless, the only interruption to their march coming in a 0-0 draw with Chelsea, United have come out on the right side of some close calls.

City have won nine and drawn four at home this season and are unbeaten in 18 games, in all competitions.   

Betting Tip

With the draw at 5.32 and an away win at 7.52, anything other than a Manchester City win would be a genuine shock. Fifteen points separate the two teams and my money says the gap will be 18 by 5-30pm on Sunday; the most popular question is not whether City will win, but by what margin?              

For an alternative bet, Under 3.50 goals is priced at 1.82 while, for a longer shot, another 3-0 victory to the Sky Blues is at 8.20.

 

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