Premier League: Hapless Hammers Give Leeds a Big Opportunity

Leeds United vs West Ham United

Elland Road will be packed to the rafters on Wednesday for a top-flight six-pointer as struggling West Ham arrive in West Yorkshire to take on Leeds United.  

On their return to Premier League action, after the World Cup break, Leeds lost to title favourites Manchester City while West Ham went down to Brentford, a fifth defeat in a row for David Moyes’ Hammers. Leeds then visited Newcastle on New Year’s Day, while the Londoners licked their wounds, and came away with a highly impressive goalless draw against one of the form sides of the Premier League.

The upshot of all this action means that Jesse Marsch’s team is in 14^th position and two points ahead of their visitors who sit 17^th and only out of the relegation zone on goal difference. This is a huge six-pointer, West Ham can overtake the Yorkshire men with a win, but they would need a big upturn in form to do that and Leeds can sniff a real opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the bottom three.

Talking Points

Marsch has faith in his fighters

The fixture list has been unkind to Leeds over the festive period and Marsch was dismayed that his team only had three days to prepare for their clash with Newcastle, while the high-flying Magpies had five. But Leeds defended like tigers and ended Newcastle’s six-match winning run, while earning a first clean sheet in eight games. The delighted head coach said: “We defended really well, particularly set pieces because in the second half specifically they put balls forward almost every time they had a chance. Our mentality to get a clean sheet was fantastic, we managed it really well. Illan Meslier had a big day as well.” The Leeds stopper made five saves to deny the Magpies, while Leeds’ best chance fell to Spanish forward Rodrigo, who joined the Whites in 2020 and this season has nine goals. But England keeper Nick Pope was alert to save his effort and both keepers had the perfect day.

Leeds now go into another game in which their opponents have had a longer rest in between games and Marsch will rely on his squad in full, now back to strength after the World Cup. If they can put in another shift like they did against Newcastle the Whites have a good chance on Wednesday. Among Leeds United’s World Cup stars,  attacking midfielder Brenden Aaronson put in a tireless shift against Newcastle while Rasmus Kristensen came off the bench and he could make a start against the Hammers.  

Scamacca return is crucial to Hammers

West Ham’s wastefulness in front of goal cost them dearly against the Bees but the return of striker Gianluca Scamacca from an ankle injury was a welcome boost to Moyes, and his strength and pace will be key as the Hammers try to pull away from the drop zone. The boss will sincerely hope his team’s Premier League 2023 results are significantly better than those they picked up in the second half of 2022. West Ham were booed off at the London Stadium after falling to Brentford, a fifth successive defeat for the first time since 2017, and it was the first time Moyes had lost five successive league games since 2005, when he was in charge at Everton

Fans have been frustrated that summer signing Maxwell Cornet, picked up in a £17.5m deal from Burnley, has rarely been fit, and inconsistent when he has made an appearance, but he does have the craft and the magic in his boots that the Hammers are missing.  

West Ham’s away record of one win, one draw and six defeats has been their biggest problem but with players of the quality of England star Declan Rice in their numbers they should have enough to steer clear of trouble. But they are not so good that they can expect an easy ride anywhere at the moment. The latest Premier League 2023 betting odds pitch the Hammers as eighth favourites to take the dreaded drop, slightly better off than Marsch’s Leeds, but I suspect they will change places if they fall to a sixth successive defeat on Wednesday.  

History

Leeds have had the better of the head to head meetings, winning 16 to West Ham’s six in all encounters in the Premier League era. Last season the Hammers won 2-1 at Elland Road but lost 3-2 at the London Stadium as Jack Harrison scored his first career hat-trick.   

Leeds have won two, drawn one and lost four of the last seven games, while West Ham have won two, drawn one and lost four in all competitions. 

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP stats team can hardly split these two sides, with Leeds priced at 2.58 and West Ham at 2.54 with the draw at 3.16. West Ham are at 1.90 to win, Draw no Bet, but I think Leeds’ home advantage, the Hammers’ strife on the road and sheer momentum will give the Whites the edge. 

 

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