Premier League: Can Burnley Spring a Major Surprise on Arsenal?

Arsenal vs Burnley

You know what’s coming here…no!

But if you read my SBOTOP preview of Luton’s clash with Liverpool last week you’d see that I was equally sceptical then, and the Hatters very nearly did it, leading deep into injury time before Luis Diaz scored a dramatic equaliser.   

So what of Premier League: Arsenal vs Burnley? Well for a start the Gunners are at home, where they have been unbeaten in their last nine matches. I suspect the Clarets are in for a tough afternoon with Arsenal skipper Martin Odegaard back in the team and with a frightening array of attacking talent to lead.

A front line which boasts the threat of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli will test any side, but a defence which has shipped 27 goals in 11 games has more reason to be fearful. The Arsenal vs Burnley betting odds don’t give Burnley fans any comfort and neither will the fact they face a team with fire in their bellies after a frustrating weekend.

It’s fourth versus 19^th and a match which brings together former Manchester City coach Mikel Arteta and captain Vincent Kompany, but the Arsenal boss will be in no mood to renew their friendship until the end of the game.           

Talking Points

Arsenal have had enough of VAR!

The Gunners lost their unbeaten start to the league campaign after losing in Newcastle on Saturday; but that wasn’t the half of the story as Arteta is probably still fuming after he claimed a VAR controversy gave the Magpies the win. The FA has been considering banning Arteta for his comments; he certainly didn’t hold back. As at Tuesday afternoon no sanction has been imposed but the Arsenal boss is in no mood to back down. In fact it seems the club has gone to war with the PGMOL, issuing a statement backing their manager and saying the authorities need to address the standard of officiating.

Is this just a tactic to influence the referees and VAR officials?

I doubt it; but Arsenal have raised examples from this season and last which show they have been hard done to, so we’ll have to wait and see how the PGMOL and the FA responds. In the meantime I suspect, when we look at the Arsenal vs Burnley highlights, we’ll have a controversy free game.          

The Pressure is building in Burnley

Vincent Kompany’s Burnley arrived back in the Premier League full of hope, with a bright young manager, an exciting young squad and a record breaking season in the Championship behind them. But 11 games in and the reality of top flight football has hit the Clarets smack in the face, and they sit uncomfortably in the bottom three, with just one win and one draw to show for their efforts.

The club spent £100m on young players over the summer, players who will appreciate in value but whether they can learn quickly enough to stay in the Premier League remains to be seen. They play possession based football but lack the toughness and ruthlessness they need to go with that style of play, and a 2-0 reversal at home to Crystal Palace was the perfect example.  Burnley had 67 per cent possession and won the shot count by 17 to four, with a passing accuracy of 85 per cent compared to the Eagles’ 72 per cent.

It looks like a freak result but it wasn’t.

Palace’s wily boss Roy Hodgson was as generous as ever, saying Burnley played well and will be aggrieved to have lost the game…but then his team won the points.

Injuries to key players hasn’t helped Kompany and fans hope that striker Lyle Foster will be fit to start again soon, while there are clamours in the stands to bring back ball playing keeper Aro Muric, who’s excellent distribution can take the pressure off Burnley’s back line. Kompany needs to get it right before it’s too late and a trip to Arsenal is hardly the easiest way to start.

History

The Gunners have won 14 of the last 20 meetings with Burnley, drawing four and losing two. Both games were low scoring affairs in the 2021/22 campaign as Arsenal won 1-0 at Turf Moor before the two teams played out a goalless draw at the Emirates.   

And despite their back to back defeats, Arsenal are stronger in terms of recent form with three wins, one draw and two defeats from the last six games, while Burnley have won one and lost five.   

Betting Tip

So can we make a case for Burnley? Well; it can’t get much worse for Vincent Kompany’s men and Arsenal have a Champions League fixture against Sevilla in the run up to the game…but that’s about it.

Arsenal are at 1.16 to win and the Clarets are at 11.08, while the draw is 6.18, and the most likely score line is a 2-0 home win at 5.41.      

 

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