You know what folks, we’re already way past the halfway stage in the 2023/24 Premier League and, with 13 games to go, we’re in for a rollercoaster ride.
Where did the time go?
It doesn’t feel like six months have passed since Manchester City opened the defence of their title with a 3-0 win away to newcomers Burnley. The drama, the excitement, and the controversy has been non-stop, but now, as we sit here with March winking at us, the picture is becoming clearer.
With just two points separating Liverpool, City, and Arsenal, we are in a three-way title race.
Jurgen Klopp’s announcement that he is leaving Anfield at the end of the campaign has led the Liverpool fans to become misty-eyed at the thought of their beloved manager bowing out at the top. Meanwhile, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have played some scintillating football and, with the addition of Declan Rice and William Saliba, they have become genuine title contenders.
But the Premier League 2024 betting odds point in one direction – towards the Etihad Stadium.
Pep Guardiola’s 2023 treble winners have been switching between second and third gear and, despite giving their rivals a bit of a start, the Sky Blues destiny is, once again, in their own hands. Manchester City still have Liverpool and Arsenal to play, and who would bet against them coming out on top in the biggest games?
The odds have backed Guardiola’s men from the start and, after beating Brentford on Tuesday night, the Sky Blues are hovering around 2.00 to win the title, with Liverpool the team to watch at SBOTOP odds of 3.10.
In an exciting sub-plot, Erling Haaland is in the race for the Golden Boot, and his goal against the Bees took him to 17 for the campaign, two ahead of Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah.
While Arsenal don’t have a prolific scorer, they have an abundance of creative flair with Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, and Gabriel Martinelli all putting in eye-catching performances, with Saka the outstanding performer.
So after leading for so long last term, the Gunners will back themselves to go all the way this season.
Overachievers, underachievers, and 2024 predictions
On the trail of the top three, though six points adrift, Unai Emery’s Aston Villa have been in the Champions League places throughout the season and are sitting in fourth. The Villains have gate-crashed the Big Six, or is it Seven now?
But they are under pressure to put in a strong run of Premier League 2024 results to match their achievements of 2023. Centre-back Pau Torres is a key man, and if he stays fit, then Villa will put in a serious bid for a Champions League place.
Meanwhile, at the bottom end of the table, Luton Town have been the outstanding outfit. Managed by the hugely impressive Rob Edwards, on a shoestring by the way, the Hatters have given themselves a real chance of survival, level on points with 17th-placed Everton and with a game in hand.
On the other hand, the 2023 Championship runaway winners have had a nightmare. Vincent Kompany’s Burnley finished 21 points ahead of Luton last season and spent big on players in the summer. But the club’s policy of buying exciting, young players with a sell-on value, a strategy successfully used by other small top-flight clubs, hasn’t worked.
Surely relegation has been priced in with the Clarets seven points from safety, but while the football is easy on the eye, the Burnley players are simply not ready for Premier League football.
The club under the most pressure though is surely Newcastle United, as the Saudi-owned outfit which won Champions League football last season. The Magpies were quickly dumped out of European competition and have been nowhere near the top four all season, currently in eighth and 12 points behind Aston Villa.
Eddie Howe has bemoaned his difficulty in bringing in loan players, and the club has been hampered by those pesky Financial Fair Play rules.
So how will the season finish? Here are my predictions.
Liverpool have been beset by injury problems, Diogo Jota the latest to be facing a long period on the sidelines. Arsenal have some superb players but how many of them would walk into a Manchester City side with Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne back in the fold?
The Sky Blues have the deepest squad, and they are serial winners. I think they will win the Premier League and, despite what Guardiola claims, another treble is on.
Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham are breathing down the necks of Aston Villa, and I suspect Spurs will nick that fourth place, with Manchester United in sixth, and Brighton and Newcastle United making up the top eight.
At the bottom end, despite Luton’s heroics I fear the promoted three, including Burnley and Sheffield United, will make a rapid return, though Everton, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, and Crystal Palace are all still in danger.
The great Roy Hodgson has finally called it a day, and former Eintracht Frankfurt boss Oliver Glasner has taken over as manager of the Eagles, so it will be interesting to see how that transition works, while I think Thomas Frank will guide the Bees to safety.
The big factor is whether FFP will continue to show teeth and, if Everton and Nottingham Forest cop for more points deductions, then Luton, and maybe even Burnley, might sneak out of the drop zone.
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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