Premier League: After the Midweek High, Can Hammers or Villa Stay on Cloud 9?

West Ham United vs Aston Villa

It could be a little bit after the Lord Mayor’s show and all that on Sunday afternoon.

For just how can West Ham United or Aston Villa recreate the feeling they experienced on Thursday night in Europe?

The truth is, they probably can’t. But no doubt they will give this Premier League encounter a damn good go.

With precious league points on the line and, in Villa’s case, the opportunity to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in the club’s history, there is no shortage of incentive for either side.

Talking Points

It’s been a funny week for Villa. They shipped four second-half goals to lose at home to nearest rivals Spurs last Sunday – a contest in which captain John McGinn was sent off, meaning he will be suspended for the visit to the Hammers as he begins a three-match ban.

Thursday night could hardly have been more contrasting, however, as it was their turn to hit four without reply to sink Ajax and reach the quarter-finals of the Europa Conference.

Victory came at a cost, mind, with leading marksman. Ollie Watkins – 21 goals and 10 assists in all competitions this season and being touted as a possible member of England’s Euro 2024 squad – taken off with a cut to his leg and facing a fitness test.

Likewise, Diego Carlos sustained a hamstring injury in that game and has been ruled out to give manager Unai Emery plenty to think about as his team aims to consolidate fourth place.

After the midweek’s European results, Villa are actually in a better position to qualify for Europe’s top tier next season, even if they finish in fifth spot.

That is because victories for English teams have put England in a pole position for one of the extra Champions League spots on offer next term.

West Ham enjoyed a special night of their own as they put five past Freiburg of the Bundesliga in what was the club’s biggest ever European success.

It lifted the spirits following a disappointing draw at home to Burnley last Sunday when David Moyes’ men fought back from 2-0 down to earn a point.

While Villa have lost a key man in the past few days, West Ham have gained one of their own and a talent who could, potentially, shape their season.

I am, of course, talking about Lucas Paqueta – a player who has really caught the eye.

If he shines, so can West Ham. If Villa can dampen his impact, they have enough talent of their own to shine through.

Premier League 2024 highlights could well await.

History

Historically, West Ham have had the edge in this fixture with 45 victories compared to 39 Villa successes and a further 35 draws.

Their very first meeting came in the FA Cup in 1913 when Villa won a second round tie 5-0 at Villa Park.

For the record, the scorers that day were Harold Halse (two), Clem Stephenson, Harry Hampton and William Morris.

The last time Villa secured a league double over West Ham was in 2010-11.

They won 3-0 at home, courtesy of goals from Stewart Downing, Stilian Petrov and James Milner.

They then won 2-1 at Upton Park thanks to a last minute Gabby Agbonlahor goal – Darren Bent had cancelled out Robbie Keane’s opener for the Hammers who were ultimately relegated.

That was the last time they beat the Hammers on their own turf.

Since moving to their new stadium in 2016, the best Villa have managed is a pair of 1-1 draws, including last season when a Watkins opener was quickly cancelled out by a Said Benrahma penalty.

The contest earlier this season showed Villa at their finest.

A Douglas Luiz double, one from the penalty spot, Watkins and Leon Bailey goals meant Jarrod Bowen’s reply was a consolation in a 4-1 home win.

It was an 11th straight league victory at home, Villa’s best run since winning 13 in a row when they were reigning European champions in 1983.

Betting Tip

I can scarcely remember a contest as close with the SBOTOP Premier League 2024 betting odds.

Villa have the edge priced 1X2 @ 2.42 with West Ham @ 2.56.

Asian Handicap odds also provide some intriguing options, including West Ham 0.00 @ 2.17 and Villa -0.50 @ 2.42.

This game comes less than three days after both were involved in European action so tiredness could well be a factor.

Realistically, I don’t expect too many goals and I’m leaning more towards Total Goal 0-1 @ 4.33 and 2-3 @ 1.99 than 4-6 @ 2.47 and Over 3.25 @ 2.17.

A repeat of the contest last season, which ended 1-1, will earn you a payout of @ 7.00 with Correct Score, whereas another 4-1 Villa win is worth a whopping @ 44.00.

A draw @ 3.35 appealed and I think it will be close, but I think Villa will prevail.

 

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