It has long been said that Easter weekend plays a key role in the final standings of any football season.
That can be at the top and the race for a title, a race for European spots, a race for promotion or the dreaded relegation battle.
And while, as far as the Premier League is concerned, teams now usually only play once over Easter weekend (as opposed to the historic double-header), the importance of the next set of fixtures remains as paramount as ever.
For example, if champions Manchester City lose at home to Arsenal it would surely be a body blow as they pursue an historic fourth successive championship?
What if that match between first and third is a draw, as Liverpool will be hoping. That would potentially allow the Merseysiders (who host Brighton) to open up an advantage and go top.
And of Arsenal themselves, victory against the side which ruined all their dreams in such heartbreaking fashion last term, would arguably be the biggest statement yet that Mikel Arteta‘s men are ready to move from bridesmaids to bride.
That is the state of play at the top of the table and, after a campaign in which those clubs have delivered Premier League highlights, the run-in for what is officially a three-horse race now begins in earnest.
While the race for fourth spot appears a straight battle between Aston Villa and Spurs, the fact that fifth place may also seal a Champions League berth next term will have piqued the interest of sixth-placed Manchester United and the sides immediately behind them.
That is because victories for English teams in Europe have placed England in a pole position for one of the extra Champions League spots on offer next term.
It all means United’s visit to Brentford on Easter Saturday night has heightened interest, as does the clash at lunchtime between Newcastle (10th) and West Ham (seventh) on Tyneside and Villa (fourth) entertaining Wolves (ninth).
Switch to the other end of the table and it is potentially going to be just as compelling.
Now as far as this SBOTOP observer is concerned, and our Premier League betting odds concur, Burnley and Sheffield United are all but destined for the drop.
The Clarets’ 2-1 victory over Brentford last time out has given them a glimmer of hope but, realistically, eight points adrift of safety with nine matches to play is too big an ask.
That leaves a battle to avoid the final relegation spot between Luton Town, Everton, Nottingham Forest and possibly the Bees and Crystal Palace.
The fact that this particular struggle could be decided by a punishment imposed off the field, as much as performances on it, only adds to the intrigue, tension and anger.
Forest were the latest top flight club to fall foul of the regulations last week when a four point deduction was imposed on them.
That plunged them into the drop zone, despite receiving a lesser punishment than Everton for breaching profitability and sustainability rules because they admitted guilt early and fully cooperated with the independent commission.
You will recall, Everton were handed a 10-point deduction in November, reduced to six on appeal, for a £19.5 million overspend, whereas Forest breached permitted losses of £61m by £34.5m.
The commission believed Forest were worthy of the same punishment but said a potential six-point loss was reduced to four owing to the club’s “early plea and the cooperation together”.
The Premier League had argued for an eight-point deduction.
Premier League clubs are allowed to lose £105m over a three-year period but Forest’s permitted losses were limited to £61m because they spent two years of that period in the Championship.
Like the Toffees, who are awaiting the outcome of further charges, Forest are set to appeal which leaves Luton hanging like a yo-yo – their manager Rob Edwards has a league table in his office based on no deductions for their relegation rivals and works daily on this basis.
In other words, the Hatters are focusing themselves and not relying on sanctions which could change a few more times between now and the end of the campaign.
Let’s be honest, this is not what football should be about.
As Max Rushden in the Guardian wrote last week: ‘It’s no surprise that fans are confused and generally furious about it all. Where to point that fury is a different matter.’
So, for the next couple of months, at least, expect plenty of ups, downs, controversies and debate – perhaps even more than normal.
This is the Premier League, after all, and the crucial stage always starts at Easter.
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