Japan vs Poland
With Australia needing a huge turnaround to make it out of Group C, Japan are the only Asian team left with a great—and realistic—chance of reaching the knockout stages of the World Cup 2018.
Saudi Arabia and Iran both ended up with one win each in their respective groups while South Korea floundered and lost their first two games, mathematically pushing them out of contention for the qualifying race in Group F.
In contrast, Japan haven’t lost a game and are well poised to finish at the top of Group H when they take on the hapless Poles who are still reeling from two straight defeats.
Talking Points
Who would have thought that Japan would be top of their group at this point of the tournament?
In a group that features the likes of Poland, Colombia and Senegal, the general consensus is that Japan are the “weakest” team in the group and could only hope to finish third at best. In fact, in our World Cup 2018 predictions, we had the Japanese taking an early bath.
Not to mention their FIFA ranking. Japan are 61st in the world, far behind the eighth-ranked Poles, no.16 Colombia and the 27th-rated Senegal. You could add the rankings of the other three members in the group and the sum is still better than Japan’s position on the board.
However, the Samurai Blue made no sense of the rankings and stormed to their first two games with a win and a draw. They passed their first big test by beating Colombia 2-1 before drawing with Senegal, fighting back twice to earn a point and remain atop the group.
Put simply, this Japanese team has exceeded expectations, and the momentum is certainly on their side as they head to the Volgograd Arena for the final game of the group.
Sure enough, Akira Nishino’s men are not yet assured of a spot to the next round. They at least need a draw to survive and a win to ensure that they top the group.
In the event that they lose to Poland, Colombia can oust the Japanese with just a draw with Senegal in the other Group H match—no thanks to the advantage on goal difference that Los Cafeteros have.
Nevertheless, with the way Japan are playing, a defeat against Poland is quite unthinkable.
Offence has been the key for Nishino’s side. While their defence remains an issue, they have showcased the firepower that was expected from them right from the start.
Borussia Dortmund’s Shinji Kagawa, FC Koln’s Yuya Osako and former AC Milan midfielder Keisuke Honda have all found the back of the net in their first two games, and it’s unlikely that they will stop in what is perhaps the most important game for them.
It’s also worth noting that Leicester City’s Shinji Okazaki is yet to make his mark, and it would be foolish to write him off in a squad that has shown the determination to compete.
Poland will surely want to avoid further embarrassment in the competition and could spoil the impending Japanese party. After all, they still have Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski who could well change the course of the game for them.
Nevertheless, no matter how big is Adam Nawalka’s desire to salvage some reputation, morale is undoubtedly low among the Polish players—especially after the poor World Cup 2018 results that saw them score one goal and concede five.
Poland have never lost all three of the World Cup group stage games, but as we all know, there’s always room for a first time.
History
Poland’s head-to-head record against Japan is another reason for them to feel down.
The Poles have not won in two encounters against the Asian side, including a 0-5 thrashing in 1996. The last time they met was in a friendly in 2002, with the Samurai Blue bagging a comfortable 2-0 victory right on Poland’s home turf.
Japan have not scored in four of their last five World Cup games against European opposition, with their only goals coming from a 3-1 victory over Denmark way back in 2010. They failed to score against the likes of Greece (2014), Netherlands (2010), Croatia (2006) and Turkey (2002), losing twice and drawing the other two in those fixtures.
What are the odds?
Japan are in spectacular form right now and are slight favourites to win with 1X2 odds at 2.53. Despite their poor displays, nonetheless, Poland aren’t far behind and are expected to pose enough challenge with odds of 2.80.
On the other hand, considering that goals are hard to come by for Poland, SBOBET odds point to a low-scoring affair. Under 2.50 goals is at 1.77, with a Correct Score Draw 1-1 @ 5.40 and a Japan 1-0 win at 7.20.
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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