Aston Villa vs Chelsea
If the saying ‘you’re only as good as your last game’ is true, then there’s little point in Chelsea travelling to Villa Park for this FA Cup fourth round replay.
For they have just conceded eight goals in their past two games and were embarrassed 4-2 at home by Wolves on Sunday.
By contrast, Aston Villa hit five without reply at bottom club Sheffield United and are in the top four of the Premier League.
Yet we all know this competition is different and, as far as FA Cup highlights are concerned, few have had as many as Chelsea over the past 25 years.
Talking Points
The improvement in Villa under one of the best managers in the game, Unai Emery, has been well documented by this SBOTOP writer.
In 17th position when took over 16 months ago, the club has been transformed since his arrival and he has turned Villa Park into a fortress.
Indeed, last week’s reverse at home to Newcastle was only their second defeat in 18 home league games.
In Leon Bailey, they also have a prime example of the benefit of patience.
His arrival from Bayer Leverkusen was accompanied by a reputation for thrilling fans. Bailey’s home debut saw him come on, score a belter, and leave again due to injury. It was a frustratingly brief glimpse at what the future might hold.
This season, just 1,015 league minutes have brought Bailey seven goals and six assists and he appears a player Vital to Villa’s FA Cup hopes and Champions League aspirations.
The club also appears to have recruited well in the January transfer window.
Morgan Rogers became Villa’s second signing of the month after right-back Kosta Nedeljkovic arrived in the Midlands from Red Star Belgrade.
The 21 year-old, who joined Middlesbrough on a permanent deal last summer, was earmarked as a player who could instantly bolster Villa’s frontline as Emery clearly plans for the longer term.
As for Chelsea, everything right now appears short term.
On paper, they have a squad which should be challenging for all the top prizes after the biggest quick-fire outlay in football history.
Perplexingly, not least to their fans, it is not working out like that and their manager who has inherited many of the issues, Mauricio Pochettino, apologised to supporters after Sunday’s reverse at home to Wolves.
They have the same number of points at this stage of the season as they did after 23 games last season, under a combination of Thomas Tuchel and Graham Potter, and were booed at full-time.
Pochettino says it’s “a matter of time” before his young squad – which has reached the League Cup Final later this month – begins to show sustained progress, although he accepted “patience is not infinite”.
Going out of the FA Cup at the fourth round stage may stretch that patience further.
History
Until Roman Abramovich breezed into town in the summer of 2003 and shifted the landscape of English football, Villa held the upper hand in this fixture.
That quickly changed as the free-spending billionaire turned Chelsea from pretenders into the finished article. Indeed, in the 41 meetings between the sides in all competitions since then, Villa have only won on nine occasions.
Yet that includes two of the last three and there’s no doubt which club appears to be in the ascendancy.
As well as the drawn tie (0-0) at Stamford Bridge 10 days ago which has led to this replay, Villa have won on their last two visits to west London.
An Ollie Watkins goal earned them victory in September, while Watkins was also on target last April, along with John McGinn, in a 2-0 league success.
Villa have only defeated Chelsea at home twice in the past decade mind, most recently on the final day of the 2020-21 season when Bertrand Traore and an Anwar El Ghazi penalty secured a 2-1 success.
Last season Chelsea were 2-0 winners in this league fixture, courtesy of two goals from Mason Mount.
Overall, Villa have triumphed 60 times in their meetings with 68 Chelsea victories and 36 draws.
Betting Tip
Our FA Cup betting odds back Villa all the way as they are priced 1X2 @ 2.07 and Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 1.95.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are out at 1X2 @ 2.93 and Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.26.
The draw is on offer @ 3.14 with a repeat of the meeting earlier this term – Correct Score 1-0 – showing odds of @ 8.20.
I expect a few goals but not too many in this tie and total goal 0-1 @ 3.53 has caught my eye more than 2-3 @ 1.91, 4-6 @ 3.16 and over 2.75 @ 2.03.
I am going to go for Villa to edge this.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT))
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
●●●
CHECK OUT OUR BLOG FOR MORE FOOTBALL STORIES & ODDS
Stay updated with everything sports and betting.
Follow us on social Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube.
