Euro 2024: Azzurri Can Advance as the Group of Death Runners-Up

Croatia vs Italy

Spain have claimed supremacy in the Group of Death thanks to their spotless wins against Italy and Croatia. This leaves the other Euro 2024 aspirants, Albania, Italy, and Croatia, tussling against one another in the standings to join the Spaniards in the Round of 16.

Gli Azzurri can clinch their spot in the knockouts with a win or a draw against the struggling Croatian side. Both teams have much to prove during their upcoming clash, so read more below for an in-depth preview of Croatia’s clash with Italy at Red Bull Arena.

 

Talking Points

Italy’s attack must do better

The reigning European champions are just a win or a draw away from securing their spot in the Round of 16. However, the football world isn’t sure what Italy will show against Croatia after their humbling defeat against Spain earlier this week.

Spain ran circles around the Italians at Veltins-Arena, where the Spaniards dominated Gli Azzurri with their patented style of play. Focusing on possession, passing, and efficiency, Spain controlled the match from start to finish, leaving Italy scratching their heads after it was all said and done.

In that match, Spain controlled every facet of the game, whether with their crisp short passes, surgical ball handling, or patience; Spain showcased the best Tiki-Taka this SBOTOP writer has seen in a long time.

To make their win more humbling, the only goal scored during the match was an own goal by Italy’s star, Riccardo Calafiori. This loss marked Italy’s first loss in the European Championships since 2016, ending a 10-game unbeaten run by Azzurri.

Aside from Spain’s dominance, the Italians’ glaring reason for losing that match was their underwhelming attack. Italy have only managed four attempts at goal, with just one on target. This stat sounds unreal, especially in a tournament as big as the Euros.

Italy simply need to be more aggressive with their offence. Luciano Spalletti undoubtedly has the personnel to consistently find the back of the net, and they’ve already proven that they’re capable of scoring goals with their 2-1 victory over Albania.

The main question now is which version of Italy we will see during their clash against Croatia.

 

What went wrong with Croatia?

Croatia are considered one of the powerhouses in European football, as they’ve been relevant in the scene since time immemorial. However, their impressive longevity might really come to an end this year, thanks to their underwhelming Euro 2024 results in their first two games.

To be fair, they’re clustered in the Group of Death, but that doesn’t give them the ultimate pass to be winless after two matches. Their biggest fumble thus far was their 2-2 draw against the group’s underdogs, Albania, who are now sitting third in the group standings thanks to their superior goal difference.

Their 2-2 draw is arguably the most competitive match in the tournament thus far. It was the first-ever competitive match between the two Balkan teams, and not an ounce of brotherly love was shown.

For the most part of the tail-end of the match, it looked like the Croats were poised to win, being up 2-1, but a goal by Klaus Gjasula five minutes into injury time levelled the skirmish, forcing both Balkan sides to settle with a draw and become Group B’s basement dwellers.

Now in last place coming into Matchday 3, Croatia’s chances of advancing to the knockouts require many conditions, but they can only keep their heads down and focus on the next task ahead of them: Italy.

 

History

These two historic teams have not played much football together, sharing the pitch only four times since 2006. However, they’ve proven to be a good matchup against one another, as they’ve recorded three draws in those four matches, with Italy garnering one win to complete their head-to-head record.

In recent form, Croatia have been unbeaten in their last six matches before the start of the 2024 European Championships. Despite their dominance prior to their trip to Germany, Croatia have yet to garner a win in Euro 2024 and are currently the bottom dwellers in the Group of Death.

Conversely, Italy had also been unbeaten in their last six matches before starting their Euro 2024 campaign. But unlike Croatia, Italy managed to win their first match of the tournament before being pulled back to earth by the Spaniards.

 

Betting Tip

The Euro 2024 betting odds suggest that both teams will have a competitive showing, as no team is given clear favourite status. However, Italy do have a slight advantage though, being priced at 2.40 to win, while Croatia are right there at 2.91 with a draw price of 3.21. My betting tip for this match is straightforward: Italy 1X2 at 2.40. The Italian side have shown that they can produce stellar results in the tournament, but not much of the same can be said for the Croatians. It’ll surely be a close match, but I’ll give Italy the edge against Croatia.

   

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