EFL Cup: Can the Magpies Steal the Jewels?

Manchester United vs Newcastle United

The EFL Cup final is a tale of two Uniteds this weekend as Manchester and Newcastle go head to head in search of the first silverware of the 2022/23 campaign.

Newcastle’s Eddie Howe is in his first final as a head coach while Erik Ten Hag won three Eredivisie titles at Ajax and two KNVB Cups. Both clubs are desperate for a chance to open the trophy cabinet, the Red Devils for the first time since they won this competition in 2017, and the Magpies who have had a much longer wait, last winning something in 1955 when they lifted the FA Cup.

Manchester United beat Aston Villa, Burnley, Charlton Athletic and Nottingham Forest to make it to the final and the pre-match EFL Cup 2023 betting odds suggest they will go one further.    

Meanwhile, Newcastle United beat Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Leicester City and Southampton and they too will fancy their chances. The Magpies are in the hunt to win a top four place in their first full season under Saudi ownership, currently fifth, though they will go fourth if they win their game in hand over Spurs. They lost 2-0 to Liverpool last week, a rare defeat and the Magpies will be desperate to give their long suffering fans something to celebrate.    

The Red Devils come into the game on a high, having beaten La Liga leaders Barcelona in a two leg Europa League tie on Thursday and Ten Hag has taken his team up to third place, and the Dutch coach is showing signs that he could be the first Old Trafford boss since Sir Alex Ferguson to genuinely challenge for the league title.

But on Sunday his team only has one thing in mind, to keep the Magpies away from the shiny prize.   

Talking Points

Rashford Doubtful

Manchester United’s player of the moment is striker Marcus Rashford who is having the season of his life. The England man has five goals in the competition and he was on target again in Manchester United’s clash with Leicester City last week, a goal which made it 13 goals for him in 15 appearances in all competitions since the World Cup.

But the Old Trafford crowd collectively held its breath on Thursday when their red hot striker limped off during the game with Barcelona, which the Red Devils won thanks to goals from Fred and Antony. Now Rashford is doubtful for the Wembley date and the manager will make a late call once his player has undergone further treatment and tests at the club.

If he doesn’t make it Rashford will be a big miss.

Goalie conundrum for Newcastle  

In other EFL Cup 2023 news, Newcastle’s number one keeper Nick Pope will miss the game after he was sent off during the Geordies’ defeat to Liverpool and he will, arguably be a bigger miss than Rashford would be for the Reds.  Pope has been magnificent since his transfer from Burnley to Newcastle and his absence will cause uncertainly in a defence which has been the meanest in the top flight. 

Second choice Martin Dubravka is cup tied as he played for Manchester United when he was on loan at Old Trafford and that means, with Karl Darlow on loan at Hull City, Howe is left with German keeper Loris Karius and Englishman Mark Gillespie. Karius seems likely to get the call having joined the club in September, though he hasn’t played a competitive game since February 2021 when he represented Union Berlin in the Bundesliga. Gillespie hasn’t made an appearance for the Magpies since his 2020 switch from Scottish club Motherwell.

Karius will be remembered for his catastrophic showing for Liverpool in the 2018 Champions League final when he gifted Real Madrid two goals in a 3-1 victory for the Spaniards.    

It’s no surprise that the SBOTOP odds took a turn away from Tyneside when Pope got his marching orders last week, and the man who takes his place will be under a huge amount of pressure.

History

Manchester United have won 34 of the last 57 encounters with the Magpies, drawing 16 and losing just seven.

The last two meetings ended in low scoring draws a 1-1 at St James Park last season and a 0-0 at Old Trafford in October when Ten Hag was frustrated by the Magpies’ time-wasting tactics, saying: “It’s an annoying team to play against. So we have to make sure we play our game and focus on our game.”

Manchester United are unbeaten in nine and I’m backing them to make it ten.   

Betting Tip

The Red Devils are at 2.05 to win the match in 90 minutes while Newcastle are at 3.01 and the draw is 3.20.   I think it will be a tight game and Under 2.50 goals is available at odds of 1.88. Newcastle will do all they can to protect their keeper and it could be another frustrating 90 minutes for the Manchester club; but I think Ten Hag will triumph after extra time.

 

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