Copa America: Win or Go Home for El Tri and La Tri

Mexico vs. Ecuador

Unlike other groups where teams’ fates are out of their hands, Mexico and Ecuador will be jostling it out to see which of them advances to the knockout stages on Monday.

Both squads are on one win apiece—both against Jamaica—and are looking to join Group B leaders Venezuela to advance in the tournament.

Frequent Copa America quarterfinalists in the past, El Tri and La Tri seek to avoid shame by bowing out of the group stages. And with both teams reaching the quarterfinals the last time they are in the competition, no quarter will surely be given to either side.

 

Talking Points

Can Mexico survive without Alvarez?

Mexico’s victory over CONCACAF rivals, Jamaica, came at a bittersweet time.

On one hand, they started the tournament with a win. On the other hand, their captain and undoubtedly best player, Edson Alvarez, suffered a hamstring injury that ultimately ruled him out for the rest of the tournament.

The West Ham midfielder is known for his aggressiveness and a knack for defence. As for goals, Alvarez has proven from time to time that whilst it is not his primary job, he certainly has that skill in his wheelhouse.

With him leading El Tri’s Copa America charge, Mexico boss Jaime Lozano was confident his team would make noises against their rivals.

He’s not at his disposal anymore.

With 80 caps to his name, experience is what he brings aside from proven quality. And experience is what Mexico needs after Lozano did not include several household veterans in his squad, like Raul Jimenez, Hirving Lozano, and Guillermo Ochoa.

In order to advance to the next round, Lozano would need the help of everyone involved. And even in the event that they do progress, Group A winners, Argentina, will be waiting for them.

On the flipside, Alvares promises to fulfil his captaincy duties, albeit off the field. According to Copa America 2024 updates, he will remain with the team for the duration of their stay to provide moral support.

But with him unable to play, they won’t be staying for long.

 

Equador’s breathing room

La Tri has scored four goals in this tournament so far. That is tied for third most with Brazil, and only Colombia and Uruguay have more.

This is huge for Felix Sanchez’s side as it allows them to have more options to advance come gameday.

Ecuador netted three goals against Jamaica, which included Piero Hincapie scoring from a direct cross.

And even though they were dealt a red card against Venezuela after Enner Valencia’s boot connected with Jose Martinez’s neck, La Tri scored first via Jeremy Sarmiento and tried to hang in there as best they could.

Despite having four goals so far, they are only a goal ahead of Mexico in terms of goal difference.

But it should not cause any concern to the Ecuadorians so long as they don’t lose—obviously—and allow a goal fest; it seems highly unlikely anyway.

 

History

Both nations have met five times in Copa America’s history, with Mexico winning all but one. They last met in an international friendly back in 2022, with the result being a scoreless draw.

In terms of Copa America bragging rights, Mexico holds the upper hand, despite the fact that they are only CONMEBOL invitees. They have been runners-up twice, in 1993 and 2001, and have reached the semifinals on three separate occasions.

Meanwhile, Ecuador’s best finish in the tournament was a fourth-place finish in 1959 and 1993.

 

Betting Tip

Mexico will be looking to go all out as they avoid suffering the same fate they had at the last World Cup. Ecuador know they can score in bunches and will have no problems capitalising errors.

In their last Copa America meeting in 2015, Ecuador gained the upper hand with a 2-1 win.

With the scoring trend in the tournament currently favouring Ecuador, along with Mexico’s eagerness to prove that they can advance against all odds, Copa America 2024 odds suggest a tight affair between the two sides.

SBOTOP has Ecuador as slight favourites at 2.58, whilst Mexico is at 2.77. Meanwhile, a stalemate between the two is priced at 3.01.

For my money, putting a bet on Ecuador, or a draw, is the right way to go. Mexico won’t suddenly find their goal-scoring touch overnight. With only one goal to show so far, coupled with Edson Alvarez’s absence, they will have a hard time looking for different ways to find the back of the net.

   

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