Brazil vs Paraguay
The Copa America Brazil vs Paraguay matchup is easily the biggest mismatch of the four quarter-finals. The hosts and heavy pre-tournament favourites are set to go up against the weakest side left in the tournament.
After unconvincing performances in their first two tournament matches, Brazil finally turned up the style in their 5-0 pounding of Peru in their final group game. As for Paraguay, they were still second-best even against a second-string Colombia side which had already qualified.
The Brazil vs Paraguay betting odds are overwhelmingly in the hosts’ favour, and with good reason. But Paraguay have had Brazil’s number at this stage of the competition the last two times they’ve met, so the Selecao should take nothing for granted.
Talking Points
Brazil’s breakout star
At last, Brazil produced the type of performance against Peru that was worthy of their status as tournament favourites. Although, the 5-0 scoreline did flatter the hosts a tad.
They were up 2-0 inside of 20 minutes despite not playing all that brilliantly. While their first goal came from a well-worked set-piece, their second was the result of a disastrous error by Peru keeper Pedro Gallese, which Roberto Firmino capitalised upon.
Still, there were positives to take away from Brazil’s performance overall, none bigger than the continued emergence of Everton. After impressing in back-to-back matches as a substitute, the 23-year-old was handed the start by Tite, and he took full advantage of it.
Everton scored his second goal of the tournament, although Gallese was again partly at fault for getting beaten at his near post. He was also credited with the assist for Willian’s beautiful fifth. After another strong showing, he has all but secured his place in the starting XI against Paraguay.
Just about the only thing that didn’t go Brazil’s way was Gabriel Jesus’ continued inability to find the back of the net. The Manchester City man, who was given the start out wide, even missed a late penalty, which likely didn’t do his confidence much good.
But Brazil don’t necessarily need Jesus to get past Paraguay. Between Everton, Firmino, Philippe Coutinho, and Richarlison, the Brazilians still have a wealth of attacking weapons.
The big Brazil vs Paraguay news is that the hosts will be without key defensive midfielder Casemiro, who will be suspended after picking up another yellow card. His natural replacement, Fernandinho, is also a doubt after he was not available against Peru due to a knee injury.
But again, Brazil defence should still have enough in reserve to keep Paraguay at bay. Their backline has yet to concede a goal in the tournament, and Paraguay’s lightweight attack shouldn’t pose too many problems.
Can’t count plucky Paraguay out
Paraguay are somewhat fortunate to find themselves in the quarter-finals of the Copa. They finished as the second-ranked third-placed team as they edged out Japan on goal difference.
Paraguay easily could have finished second in their group had they just held on to their two-goal lead over Qatar. They also had a golden opportunity to pick up another win against a much-changed Colombia side in the final group game, but they also squandered it.
As they have shown during the group stage, there’s nothing all that spectacular about Paraguay. Apart from Miguel Almiron, they don’t offer anything much in attack. Their defence is supposedly their strong suit, although they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet thus far despite less than stellar opposition.
Conventional wisdom suggests that Paraguay shouldn’t stand much of a chance against the hosts. But there’s just something about the Paraguayans that allows them to over-perform relative to their talent level.
Brazil have witnessed this first-hand in recent years, particularly at the quarter-finals of the Copa America. That’s why despite the clear disparity in terms of quality, Paraguay shouldn’t be completely counted out.
History
To the surprise of no one, Brazil have the significant edge over Paraguay in terms of the all-time head-to-head record. The Selecao have won 48 of 81 total meetings, with Paraguay winning 13 and 20 ending in a stalemate.
However, Paraguay have had the upper hand over Brazil when they’ve met at the Copa America. Paraguay are undefeated in their last four meetings and have come out on top three times. Although, the last two instances — in the quarter-finals in 2011 and 2015 — were via penalties.
Betting Tip
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Brazil vs Paraguay | Paraguay Asian Handicap +2.00 @ 1.98 |
| June 28, 08:30 (GMT+8) |
SBOBET odds have Brazil priced as overwhelming 1.17 favourites to win on the 1X2 market, with Paraguay an astronomical 11.00 to pull off the upset in normal time.
But don’t expect Paraguay to get blown out like Peru. They will likely sit back and defend deep for virtually the entire match as they are known to do. And as Brazil have shown in this tournament, they still have some problems against teams that deploy that sort of strategy.
If Brazil don’t get the early goal as they did against Peru, it’s quite possible that the pressure will once again creep up on them. And while they could still beat Paraguay, it may not be nearly as comfortable as many expect.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR ( ) BETS ARE WORTH: |
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 = €20 (Highly confident) |
= €10 (CONFIDENT) |
= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT) |
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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