That is the question as we head into the final third of the Premier League season.
My advice is simple: if there are to be five English teams in next season’s Champions League – put your money on the current top five.
If there are to be just four – and that is guaranteed – then for this SBOTOP observer, it comes straight down to a choice between Aston Villa and Spurs.
Where are Manchester United and Newcastle United (who finished in third and fourth place respectively in the Premier League last season) I hear you ask?
Quite frankly, not returning to Europe’s top tier next term is the simple answer.
A combination of injuries and inconsistency saw them both bow out of the group stages before Christmas and, for the same reason, they are off the pace domestically with sixth place the highest either will finish.
Both Villa and Spurs won on Saturday which leaves the Midlanders holding the crucial fourth spot but there’s not much in it.
In some ways, Spurs have got an advantage in that they have a less congested schedule, whereas Villa are in the latter stages of the Europa Conference League – a competition they qualified for after a resurgent run under Unai Emery in the second half of last season.
Both clubs impressed me in the January transfer market and, with the sides set to clash at Villa Park this weekend, the run-in for that fourth is about to get serious.
The Champions League 2024 betting odds make Villa slight favourites for that game, and it really is that close.
Not since 1983 have they been at Europe’s top table and the former European Cup when, as holders, they were knocked out at the quarter-final stage by Juventus.
For Spurs, Champions League 2024 highlights have not been so rare, and they even reached the final in 2019.
Of course, it’s a very different format for next year’s competition.
UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin yesterday confirmed the new model of a 32-team group stage being replaced by a league phase featuring 36 teams.
Under the new format, teams will play eight matches and will no longer play three opponents twice but will instead face fixtures against eight different teams (half at home and half away).
Teams finishing first to eighth will qualify for the last-16 with those ninth to 24th in a play-off.
To quote Ceferin: “UEFA has clearly shown that we are fully committed to respecting the fundamental values of sport and to defending the key principle of open competitions, with qualification based on sporting merit, fully in line with the values and solidarity-based European sports model”.
Now if you believe that, you’ll believe anything.
I am one of the many fans opposed to the change in structure and believe it is purely designed to suit the clubs with the wealthiest pockets, never mind create extra matches in an already congested calendar.
But back to the purpose of this article, Villa nor Spurs can aim for fifth and be certain of a place.
The two countries with the best UEFA coefficient will get an extra spot in the Champions League. That coefficient is decided by the performances of clubs from that nation in European competition, with points earned for wins, draws, and qualification to each round in the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League. The final figure is taken as the average of the total points accrued from all clubs.
As it stands, the extra Champions League places would go to Italy and Germany.
Yes, there could be five English teams in the Champions League but only guaranteed if Brighton or West Ham, who won’t finish in the top five, win the Europa League.
So, there you have it.
Clear as mud, maybe, but this betting man would say there’s more chance of a fab four than a famous five and that means Villa or Spurs, not both.
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