Champions League: Unstoppable Inter’s Madrid Showdown

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan

2023 Champions League runners up Inter Milan take a slender lead to Spain on Wednesday when they face Atletico Madrid in a fascinating Round of 16 date.  

This tie is finely in the balance after Inter took a narrow lead from their home leg when Marko Arnautovic scored the only goal of the game; and that edge makes the Simone Inzaghi’s side strong favourites to make it through the to the quarter finals, at SBOTOP odds of 1.21.  

Inter are in outstanding form at the moment, beating every team they come across, but at 3.75, Diego Simeone’s Rojiblancos are certainly not out of it and, unless I Nerazzurri score an early goal this could be a tense evening for the Serie A runaway leaders.

Atletico Madrid lost 2-0 away to Cadiz on Saturday while Inter come into the game on the back of a home win against Bologna, and the hosts’ first task is to be the first team to avoid defeat to Inzaghi’s team.

Talking Points

When the going gets tough…

Will Atleti get going?  

Well there aren’t many coaches or teams tougher than Simeone and his Atletico Madrid, but the Spaniards are having to dig deep at the moment, on a run of just a single victory in the last five games. The last fortnight has been a shocker for Los Rojiblancos; they were unceremoniously dumped out of the Copa del Rey by Athletic Club and then beaten by relegation threatened Cadiz, a result which left them in fourth place in the La Liga table and just two points ahead of Athletic Club.

Atleti did beat Real Betis between those two losses but, with their Champions League place in serious threat they desperately need to get back to winning ways. Striker Alvaro Morata is a big player for Los Rojiblancos, he scored in the win over Betis and has five goals from seven games in Europe this year. Morata will score if he gets a big chance while Madrid’s deeper players will need to play the game of their lives on Wednesday. Rodrigo de Paul has a lot of responsibility on his shoulders; the Argentine midfielder is a strong runner and will support his attack when the opportunity arises, while providing good protection for the Atleti defence.     

Will 13 be unlucky for Inter?

I Nerazzurri have been in irresistible form this year and a 1-0 win against a dangerous Bologna side made it 12 victories on the bounce. They are a whopping 16 points ahead of second placed AC Milan and the 2024 Scudetto has become a procession. Inter have won four league games since their first leg victory over Atleti, scoring 11 goals and conceding just one and Golden Boot favourite Lautaro Martinez has been in red hot form. Atleti’s De Paul will have a good duel with Inter’s box to box midfielder Nicola Barella, a technical player with plenty of flair and bags of energy. 

It’s hard to see where Inter’s next defeat is coming from but they will face a hostile crowd at the Wanda Metropolitano and they will have to be near their best to escape defeat. The Champions League 2024 betting odds rate I Nerazzuri as fifth favourites to win the title; it may be that the lack of competition in Serie A will make it harder for Inter to remain sharp against the very best.

We’ll learn more on Wednesday.    

Team News

The big pre-match Champions League 2024 news concerns a key absence at the heart of Los Rojiblancos defence. Jose Maria Gimenez will be a huge miss for the Spaniards especially with Martinez so hot to handle. There is also a big question mark over the fitness of Antoine Griezmann. The France star has scored five in the competition but he was not in the squad for the trip to Cadiz and remains doubtful.

For Inter, Arnautovic has picked up a muscle injury and will be sidelined but there is better news from Hakan Calhanoglu who came through an hour against Bologna on his return from injury.     

History

Inter Milan are three times winners of the Champions League, the last time in 2010 and were runners up last season, while Atleti have been three times finalists most recently in 2014 and 2016. 

This is the fourth time these two European giants have met since 2010 and Inter have a 2-1 lead at the moment, and the Italians have much better recent form too, unbeaten in 14 games and winning the last 12. Atletico Madrid have won two, drawn one and lost three of the last six.  

Betting Tip

At 2.30 Inzaghi’s boys are favourites to win this leg and put the tie to bed; but all three result are well in play, with Los Rojiblancos at 2.72 and the draw at 3.04.

A 1-1 draw is the most likely score at a price of 5.60 and Inzaghi would bite your hand off right now for that outcome. Yes, Inter are unbeaten in 18 games on the road but Atletico have been stronger at the Wanda Metropolitano than they are away from home; and this is a chance to turn around their form.

One thing is for sure: Simeone’s men will leave nothing on the pitch.  

 

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