Champions League: Two Old Foes Set for Spanish Clash

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester City

The Champions League quarter-finals and a (relatively) new stadium designed for nights like this; a most fitting setting to stage games at the highest level in the 21^st century.

The scene is certainly set, now for the key question.

Can a team which has punched above its weight to become a regular at Europe’s top table turnaround a narrow deficit against a club whose rise to the top shows no signs of easing?

It’s 2014 and 2016 finalists Atletico Madrid against last year’s beaten finalists Manchester City.

Talking Points

Both come into the contest on the back of differing domestic results.

In La Liga at the weekend, Atletico went down to a surprise defeat at Real Mallorca, a victory which moved them out of the drop zone and hit Atletico’s hopes of a top four finish which will be required to secure a return to this competition next season – unless, of course, they win this tie and go onto win the tournament.

In the Premier League, meanwhile, City drew 2-2 at home with title rivals Liverpool, a match they edged while also knowing a point ensures they still have the edge in the title race.

So back into Europe we go and, after last week’s first leg, all the pressure is on the hosts to show more ambition as they aim to overturn a 1-0 reverse.

Atlético ousted City’s rivals Manchester United in the last round (a 1-1 draw in Madrid was followed by a 1-0 success for the Spanish club in Manchester) but they are actually without a win in their last six Champions League home games (drawn four, lost two).

This will actually be City’s 100th game in the Champions League and a fitting venue it is too as they become the 25^th club to reach that milestone and the fifth from England.

It is also a meeting of two of the best managers in the game and two former foes as players.

Indeed, Diego Simeone and Pep Guardiola were regular opponents as players, meeting in 10 matches when Simeone was with Atlético and Sevilla and Guardiola at Barcelona.

As managers, their biggest clash to date was in the semi-finals of this tournament in 2016 when Simeone got the better of Guardiola as his Atlético side eliminated Guardiola’s Bayern Munich on away goals.

The one time they were in opposite dugouts in La Liga saw Guardiola’s Barcelona see off Simeone’s Atlético 2-1 in Madrid in February 2012.

That European encounter is said to have provoked doubt in the mind of Guardiola, yet the Atletico class of 2022 – although reigning Spanish champions – is not close to being as talented as that side.

From a purely footballing point of view, City should win relatively easily.

Of course, it doesn’t work like that which is why we could be in for another night of Champions League highlights

One thing is certain, the first goal on Wednesday night (if there is one) will be crucial in deciding the tie.

The onus is all on Atletico.

History

This is just the second ever meeting between the teams, eight days after their first ever clash.

What happened in the first leg in Manchester was actually what many expected to happen.

City dominated possession (68%) and Atletico did what Atletico do; they were compact, organised and resilient.

Simeone’s men successfully navigated three-quarters of their assignment before Phil Foden came off the bench and made an instant impact, setting up Kevin De Bruyne for an excellent deadlock-breaking finish.

Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Champions League betting odds favour City 1X2 @ 1.86 and Atletico 1X2 @ 4.10. The draw is on offer @ 3.50.

Likewise, with Asian Handicap odds, the obvious bets for me are either Atletico +0.25 @ 2.49 or City -0.75 @ 2.11.

Then there’s goals – you get no guarantee of any with the way this Atletico team can often line up.

The best options appear to be over 2.75 goals @ 2.33 and total goal 0-1 @ 3.10 – with a nod to total goal 2-3 @ 1.90 and 4-6 @ 3.85.

Another 1-0 City success will pay out @ 6.00 with Correct Score, whereas if the hosts are to turnaround the tie in normal time, Correct Score 2-0 is available @ 28.00.

I do think Atletico will have to come out at some stage – although not in the initial stages – and that should allow City to counter to deadly affect. That is why I am expecting them to prevail.

 

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