Champions League: Top Spot Up for Grabs in Group D

Inter Milan vs Real Sociedad

The pressure is well and truly off both these teams as they prepare to go head-to-head in their final Champions League group game.

That’s because Inter Milan and Real Sociedad are both assured of their place in next spring’s knockout stages.

But just wait.

For it’s often said that an advantage lies with the team which finishes top of its group and is therefore seeded in the last 16 (thus avoiding another group winner and playing the second leg of their tie on home soil).

Personally, I’ve never been convinced by that argument, given that more difficult opponents can sometimes lie in wait from the runners-up positions.

Now that the away goal rule has also been scrapped, my view has only been enhanced.

However, taking that initial viewpoint into consideration, it’s fair to say both Inter Milan and Sociedad will be gunning for top spot in Group D next week.

Talking Points

As it stands, both teams are level on points but Sociedad have the edge if this contest finishes all square, courtesy of goal difference.

It was all square when they met in Spain back in September as Lautaro Martinez rescued a point for the Italians with a late equaliser after Brais Mendez has given the men from San Sebastian an early lead.

It was a hard earned point as Martínez converted his only chance of the game to secure a point for the Nerazzurri as goalkeeper Yann Sommer produced a series of top saves.

That was actually their second meeting in a few months as the teams met in a pre-season friendly but, as that does not count, they are now preparing to meet for only the fourth time competitively in their history.

Inter enjoyed many Champions League 2023 highlights last term and have enjoyed a very consistent first half this season. Last weekend, they stayed top of Serie A as they defeated reigning champions Napoli at a ground where they had only tasted victory once in their last 17 league visits.

Hakan Calhanoglu broke the deadlock before half-time, Nicolò Barella added a second close to the hour mark, and Marcus Thuram sealed a 3-0 victory.

Sociedad are faring well in La Liga and lie in sixth place, perhaps a little lower than they’d like to be but hampered by drawing seven of their first 15 games.

They were frustrated last time out in Europe as they were held to a goalless draw by RB Salzburg when Imanol Alguacil’s failed to convert their chances.

Even if they had won that game, they would still needed to have drawn with Inter to seal top spot in the group, and that is what they will be aiming for.

It remains to be seen if they are short of numbers as they appear to be without two key players for their La Liga trip to Villarreal this weekend.

Robin Le Normand is suspended, although will return in Europe, while Ander Barrenetxea is out with an ankle sprain and, according to Alguacil, will miss multiple weeks of action.

Their squad is not the largest and Inter’s strength in depth could well prove the difference as they aim to go one better than last term.

History

As well as their meeting a few months ago, these sides did meet in the first round of the UEFA Cup in 1979/80.

Then Sociedad won their home leg 2-0 thanks to a double from Satrústegui but it was not quite enough to overturn a 3-0 Inter win in Milan from the first leg two weeks earlier when Muraro, Baresi, and Marini were the marksmen.

The scorer of the second goal that night was the Inter captain and older brother of future AC Milan legend Franco Baresi.

Inter went on to be knocked out in the second round by eventual tournament runners-up that season Borussia Monchengladbach.

Betting Tip

Another 1-1 draw is on offer @ 6.40 with Correct Score and is certainly a result Sociedad would be comfortable with, perhaps less so, Inter.

The Serie A leaders are expected to take the points, as shown in the SBOTOP Champions League 2023 betting odds of 1X2 @ 1.72 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 1.94.

Sociedad are priced 1X2 @ 4.38 and Asian Handicap +0.50 @ 2.21. The draw is tastily attractive @ 3.44.

Other bets include Over 2.50 goals @ 1.96, Under 2.25 @ 2.20, Total Goal 0-1 @ 3.18, 2-3 @ 1.94, and 4-6 @ 3.38.

I do think Inter will want to make a point here and top their group which is why I’m plumping in favour of last season’s beaten finalists.

 

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