Champions League: Bayern Hoping to Progress Past PSG

Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain

Bayern Munich are in the driver’s seat to move on to the Champions League quarter-finals at the expense of Paris Saint-Germain.

The German champions have a 1-0 lead to defend in the second leg at home against a PSG side that will be without a couple of key players in Neymar and Achraf Hakimi.

But the Parisians still possess two game-changers in Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe, so while the Champions League 2023 betting odds aren’t in their favour, they must not be underestimated by any means in Munich.

Talking Points

Bayern attack in fine form

For the first time in a while, Bayern Munich are in an actual title race in the Bundesliga. They are still top of the table, but only by goal difference, after beating relegation strugglers Stuttgart 2-1 over the weekend.

Matthijs de Ligt and Eric Choupo-Moting got the goals for Bayern, who are finally back to full strength in attack. Sadio Mane is back from injury and has come on as a substitute in the last two games.

However, Mane will likely start on the bench once again as the attacking foursome of Choupo-Moting, Thomas Muller, Jamal Musiala, and Kingsley Coman continue to be in excellent form.

Choupo-Moting has rediscovered his pre-World Cup goalscoring form with three goals in his last three games; Muller has three assists in his last two games; Musiala has been excellent all season; and Coman has five goals in his last five games, including the winning goal in the first leg against PSG.

Coman and Joao Cancelo played as wing-backs in the first leg in Paris, but Cancelo has not started in each of the last two games as Nagelsmann has turned to youngster Josip Stanisic. And with Benjamin Pavard suspended, Stanisic may get the nod once again at the back.

PSG missing key pair

PSG have responded well to their recent three-game losing skid, which culminated with their 1-0 defeat to Bayern in the first leg. The French champions have reeled off three wins in a row, scoring 11 goals during that time.

The return to fitness of superstar Kylian Mbappe has been key to PSG’s resurgence. The 24-year-old has scored five goals in their three-game win streak, and his late goal in their 4-2 win over Nantes saw him overtake Edinson Cavani as the club’s all-time goalscorer with 201 goals.

A not-quite-fit Mbappe changed the game for PSG when he came on in the second half against Bayern, and even with the injured Neymar out, he and the in-form Lionel Messi – three goals and two assists in his last three games – can produce plenty of Champions League 2023 highlights against Bayern.

Aside from Neymar, PSG will also be missing wing-back Achraf Hakimi, centre-back Presnel Kimpembe, and former Bayern midfielder Renato Sanches. Coach Christophe Galtier fielded an unexpected 4-4-2 formation in the first leg and handed a shock start to 16-year-old Warren Zaire-Emery.

Galtier is likely to play a 3-5-2 with Nordi Mukiele once again filling in for Hakimi at wing-back. Zaire-Emery also started on the weekend against Nantes, but Marco Verratti is expected to return at the heart of the PSG midfield in Munich.

History

Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain have been as evenly matched as can be in their Champions League clashes. The two European giants have won six games apiece in their 12 previous meetings.

Bayern have won three of their last four home games against PSG and five of the last seven overall. Moreover, they have been eliminated just twice in 22 previous times they’ve won the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie.

Betting Tip 

SBOTOP odds have Bayern Munich installed as 1.86 favourites to get the win at home. PSG are priced at 3.30 to win away, while a draw is 3.90.

While Bayern have the home advantage, it’s tough to bet against Mbappe, especially when he’s in this sort of form. The French phenom completely changed the game in the 30-odd minutes he played in the first leg, and he can quite easily change the entire complexion of the tie.

With Mbappe on their side, PSG have more than a puncher’s chance to pick up a positive result in the second leg in Munich.

 

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