Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund
There’s no doubting the Bundesliga game of the weekend as we head into December.
As the leaders welcome the fourth place side and last season’s runners-up, it is fair to expect Bundesliga 2023 highlights.
Are Bayer Leverkusen the read deal and ready to surpass Borussia Dortmund as the main challengers to champions Bayern Munich?
Or are Die Schwarzgelben ready to mount a serious title charge now they can spend three months without the added focus of European commitments?
I know where my money is being placed.
Talking Points
Dortmund come into this contest fresh from booking their spot in the last 16 of the Champions League by beating Milan 3-1 in the San Siro.
For a side weakened in the summer by key departures, hit hard by the way they missed out on the Bundesliga title on the final day last term and then placed in a Champions League “Group of Death”, it is a fine achievement for Edin Terzic and his players.
Despite all that, though, they are 10 points off the pace in the table after just 12 games and, while they should make top four, are not serious title contenders, confirming my pre-season prediction that they will fail to match their efforts of last term domestically.
By contrast, ever since they edged out RB Leipzig on the opening weekend, Leverkusen have been on a run with their only dropped points, not really dropped points at all as Exequiel Palacios netted a stoppage time penalty to earn a 2-2 draw at champions Bayern Munich, who they currently lead by two points at the summit.
They also won in Europe in midweek, a 2-0 success at minnows Hacken in the Europa League, so they had already qualified for the knockout stages.
In the Bundesliga, both had eye-catching victories last weekend.
Dortmund came from 2-0 down to defeat Borussia Monchengladbach 4-2, courtesy of Marcel Sabitzer, Niclas Füllkrug, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, and Donyell Malen.
Meanwhile, Leverkusen hit three without reply at Werder Bremen.
After an early own goal, Jeremie Frimpong’s first-half strike and a goal from the in-form Alejandro Grimaldo won the day to make it a happy birthday for manager Xabi Alonso.
Talking of which, the astute Spaniard is thriving.
After retiring in 2017 from a playing career which saw him win the World Cup, European Championship, two Champions Leagues, three Bundesliga titles, and a La Liga title as one of the modern game’s great creative midfielders, Alonso moved into coaching with Real Madrid’s U-14 ranks in 2018.
The 4- year-old then had three years in charge of Real Sociedad’s B team in his native Basque country before being appointed coach of Leverkusen in October last year with the 2022 Champions League finalists second bottom of the Bundesliga.
Leverkusen have never won the Bundesliga, and their best finish is being the runner-up on five occasions. Indeed, their last trophy was 30 years ago – the 1993 German Cup.
They last led the league after 11 games in 2020-21 under Peter Bosz before their form nosedived after Christmas and they finished sixth.
This has led the club to acquire the nickname “Neverkusen” among German football fans. But this time, with the winning mentality brought by Alonso, things feel different.
It is still relatively early in the campaign, and no one is saying they are ready to usurp Bayern either. But if they come through this Sunday with flying colours, another big test will have been overcome.
History
It was in October 1951 in the former Oberliga West when these sides first met. On that occasion, Dortmund led 2-0 before Leverkusen fought back to earn a draw.
Since 1979, all their meetings have come in the top-flight, and Dortmund have had the edge, both in those games and overall with 45 victories compared to Leverkusen’s 33. A further 25 matches have ended level.
Two seasons ago, this clash produced a seven-goal thriller.
Despite twice trailing, Dortmund came back to record a 4-3 success, helped by an Erling Haaland double.
Leverkusen have only won three of their last 12 clashes.
Last season, Dortmund won this meeting 2-0 with goals from Karim Adeyemi and Edmond Tapsoba (own goal) in the BayArena.
Dortmund also won 1-0 at home on the opening day of last season, courtesy of a 10th minute Marcos Reus goal.
Betting Tip
Leverkusen are favourites with the SBOTOP Bundesliga 2023 betting odds which does not surprise me, but the gulf between the two sides does.
Perhaps then you should consider bets on Dortmund when they are so attractive, both 1X2 @ 4.30 and Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 2.07.
Leverkusen are odds-on favourites, priced 1X2 @ 1.64 and Asian Handicap -1.25 @ 2.36.
Attacking teams that they are, there could be a fair few goals in this one, which is reflected in Over 3.75 goals @ 2.28, Total Goals 0-1 @ 6.60, 2-3 @ 2.25, and 4-6 @ 2.26.
If Dortmund are to repeat their 2-0 away success last term, then Correct Score will pay out @ 36.00.
The draw is on offer @ 3.85, but I think the hosts will edge this over 90 minutes.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT))
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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