Bundesliga: Fancy a Saturday Night in Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart

Fourth plays third in the Bundesliga match of the weekend when Borussia Dortmund will welcome VfB Stuttgart at a packed and raucous Signal Iduna Park. Both sides have a plan to tighten their grip on a Champions League place, with RB Leipzig three points behind BVB in fifth place.

But there’s another target in sight. Second-placed Bayern Munich are only three points ahead of Stuttgart and, with seven games to play, that makes this contest a high-stakes match. This is box office stuff and, for those with a ticket, it will be a night to remember.

Edin Terzic’s Dortmund come into the game on the back of a highly impressive 2-0 win away to FC Bayern, which sent shockwaves through Bavaria, while Stuttgart were held 3-3 at home by FC Heidenheim. Those results enabled Die Schwarzgelben to climb within four points of Seb Hoeness’ Roten.

So while the two teams won’t change places on Saturday, the gap could reduce to a single point, and that’s exactly what the pre-match Bundesliga 2024 betting odds predict will happen.

Talking Points

The big games keep on coming for BVB

Dortmund are on a five-match winning streak in all competitions, and now they have seven league games left to make it to the 2024/25 Champions League.

They have just beaten the 2023 Bundesliga champions in their own backyard and, after taking on the third-placed team, Die Schwarzgelben still have champions-elect Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig to play, not to mention a Champions League quarter-final date with Atletico Madrid on the horizon.

In a recent clash with Eintracht Frankfurt, another of the leading pack, Terzic’s team recovered from an early goal to run out 3-1 winners with goals from Karim Adeyemi, skipper Emre Can, and Mats Hummels.

Dortmund’s firepower is impressive with goals coming from all over the pitch led by Donyell Malen and Niclas Fullkrug, who have scored 11 each, while Julian Brandt has made 10 assists.

Malen is a doubt for this game, and we could see Sebastien Haller start alongside Fullkrug, who has also contributed eight assists.

Terzic knows his team will face a serious attacking threat from VfB, particularly the prolific Serhou Guirassy, and he will stick with the centre-back pairing of Nico Schlotterbeck and Hummels, who managed to keep Bundesliga top scorer Harry Kane quiet last week.

And in the centre of the park, Marcel Sabitzer is ready to return from suspension.

Stuttgart can see this through

At the start of this campaign, nobody outside of Stuttgart expected, with seven games to go, that Seb Hoeness would see his team in third place and seven points clear of RB Leipzig in fifth. But that’s the reality and, while fans in Dortmund and Leipzig probably expected VfB to fall away, they haven’t.

VfB are homing in on their first Champions League campaign since 2010 when they reached the Round of 16, and they have their strike pair of Guirassy, with 23 goals, and Denis Undav, with 15, to thank.

Both were on target in the draw with Heidenheim last week, and they will hope their defence can hold tight against Die Schwarzgelben.

Skipper Waldermar Anton is suspended, so Pascal Stenzel is primed to take his place in the centre of defence, while Atakan Karazor is expected to step into the midfield.

History

This is some story that BVB, who finished last season as runners-up, though they should really have won the title but for a last-day disaster, are battling for third place with VfB, who ended last season in 16^th place and only survived thanks to a play-off victory over Hamburger SV.

The two teams have had some great battles over the years, and BVB are ahead in the head-to-heads, but not by too much, with 29 wins to VfB’s 18, and there have been 15 draws in all competitions since 1992.

And Stuttgart have already beaten Terzic’s team twice this season, 2-1 in the league and then 2-0 in the DFB Pokal Round of 16.

Both teams have had positive Bundesliga 2024 results lately, as Dortmund have five wins and a defeat from the last six games, while Stuttgart have won four and drawn two.

But Hoeness’ team is yet to draw a game away in the league, winning eight and losing five on the road, and they have only won once on their last 14 appearances in Dortmund.

Betting Tip

Stuttgart are at SBOTOP odds of 2.66 to make it a hat-trick of wins against BVB, and the draw is at 3.53, with the Double Chance VfB or Draw at 1.66.

Guirassy will test the hosts’ defence BVB. But with a change in their own rearguard and against a free-scoring side, I suspect the Stuttgart net will bulge more than once.

 

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