Bundesliga: Bayer Don’t Fear the Wolves Bite

Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg

Runaway Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen are at home to Wolfsburg on Sunday and wisdom tells us Xabi Alonso’s winning run will carry on at a breathtaking pace.

Die Werkself have had an outstanding campaign and find themselves ten points clear at the top of the table and they will fully expect to beat their visitors. In no way will Bayer underestimate the Wolves; but they will continue to play with steely focus and confidence in their ability.

It’s worked so far and if Niko Kovac’s Wolfsburg can somehow upset the odds it will be one of the biggest Bundesliga 2024 results of the campaign so far.  

Alonso’s team come into the game on the back of a 2-0 win away to Koln, while Wolfsburg came out on the wrong side of a five goal thriller against VfB Stuttgart, and while Leverkusen have a Europa League tie away to Qarabag on Thursday night, Alonso has enough depth and quality in his squad to win on both fronts.  

Talking Points

Leverkusen are counting down

The Bundesliga 2024 betting odds price Die Werkself at 1.03 to see this job through, but until they are over the line the Leverkusen fans won’t relax. With ten games to go and a ten point lead Leverkusen are at the stage of ticking the weeks off one by one. If they match Bayern Munich’s results over the next six weeks Leverkusen will be home and dry and then the celebrations can begin.

In the meantime, Alonso will do everything in his power to avoid any wobbles.   

The combination of youth and experience has worked a dream for Die Werkself and Alonso has proved himself to be a brilliant man manager and coach. Even without top scorer Victor Boniface, who has been injured since January, his team has swept aside all before it. Boniface is nearing a return and could be back on the pitch by the end of March. In the Nigerian striker’s absence Jeremie Frimpong and Alex Grimaldo have kept the goals flowing and they were both on target in the win over Koln. Frimpong has now scored eight goals and made four assists while Grimaldo has scored nine and made eight assists.   

Add into the mix the exciting young talent of Florian Wirtz, who has made eight assists, and you have a team dripping with quality. And to balance the youthful verve of attacking midfielder Wirtz, Bayer have midfield anchor Granit Xhaka who is a leader on and off the pitch. And in Leverkusen’s 2-1 win over Mainz, the former Arsenal man scored a rare goal to open the scoring.

Leverkusen have been as impressive in Europe as they have at home, winning all six of their Europa League group matches and it’s difficult to see who can stop them.   

Wolves are playing for more than pride

This season has been a little underwhelming for Wolfsburg after Kovac led them to an eight-placed finish last term. The Wolves currently sit in 13th place in the league table, 12 points behind the European places. With 25 points in the bag, Wolfsburg have an eight-point cushion over Koln in the play of spot in 16^th, but if their winless run continues the gap could shrink as the bottom three fight for their lives.

Kovac’s team pushed high-flying Stuttgart all the way last week as Lukas Nmecha and Joakim Maehle scored for the Wolves. But the boss will be hoping to see a return to form of Jonas Wind. The 25-year-old Denmark international is top-scoring with nine goals and six assists but he has been quiet in recent weeks and started on the bench against Stuttgart. I expect Kovac will draft Wind in to face the league leaders.    

History

Bayer Leverkusen have won 24 of the past 54 meetings with Wolfsburg, while the Wolves have won 20 and there have been ten draws. When the two teams met in October, goals from Frimpong and Grimaldo gave Die Werkself  a 2-1 win with Maxence Lacroix scoring Wolfsburg’s reply.

Kovac’s team actually had more shots in that game but recent form favours the hosts of course, with six wins from the last six, while Wolfsburg are without a victory over that time, drawing four and losing two. In fact, the Wolves are without a win in eight while Leverkusen have won 11 and drawn two of their 13 games so far this season.

How compelling can the stats be?  

Betting Tip

Well the statistics have certainly convinced me. The SBOTOP odds price Leverkusen at 1.28 to win, 4.94 to draw and a win for Wolfsburg is at 7.37.  The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at odds of 6.37 with 3-0 at 7.91, and my gut feel is that one of those scores will be on the money.

 

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