Atalanta vs Empoli
So, who are going to be atop Serie A this Christmas?
Chances are if this SBOTOP writer had conducted a straw poll at the start of the season, the names of many usual suspects would have been on it: defending champions and title favourites Inter Milan for sure, perhaps their city rivals AC Milan too, and maybe even Juventus would have been in the mix to name just three.
Yet for all of their triumphs in recent years – remember they are Europa League holders – few would have placed Atalanta as table toppers when the festivities were underway.
Sunday afternoon at home to Empoli provides them with a reasonable chance to prove people wrong once more and gain what would be an 11th straight league win.
Talking Points
That they continue to punch above their weight under Gian Piero Gasperini – now in his eighth year at the club – should mean their Serie A 2024 highlights have been no surprise.
The Bergamo-based side have long been considered an underdog, of course, but they also have continually upset the more established clubs to showcase their ambition.
That he has done so while managing injuries to key players like Giorgio Scalvini and Gianluca Scamacca, emphasising squad maturity and pushing players to cut out lapses in discipline, makes Gasperini’s achievements even more impressive.
They showed their style again in midweek when they ran out 6-1 winners over Serie B outfit Cesena in the Coppa Italia to reach the quarter-finals of the competition.
Two up within the first eight minutes, Davide Zappacosta, Charles De Ketelaere, Lazar Samardzic and Marco Brescianini provided the goals and they will now face Bologna in the last eight.
Historically, Atalanta were best known for producing talented youth players but rarely competed at the top level. This narrative has changed dramatically under Gasperini’s leadership with Champions League qualification, appearances in a number of Coppa Italia finals and, most notably, their first major European trophy success in May – a success which has clearly boosted their confidence this season and demonstrated their ability to compete on the highest stage.
Empoli, by contrast, have just a couple of league wins to their name since mid-September.
On saying all of that, while the Tuscans have struggled to see teams off this term, they remain in a very respectable midtable.
One of those victories came against Hellas Verona a fortnight ago and was convincing as they racked up a 4-1 win, helped by a brace from Sebastiano Esposito.
Roberto D’Aversa’s squad has been struck by injuries throughout the season and that is the same again this weekend with Ola Solbakken ruled out after undergoing surgery on a shoulder injury sustained in training.
He will join the likes of Pietro Pellegri, Tyronne Ebuehi, Saba Sazonov and Nicolas Haas on the sidelines, while Mattia De Sciglio is suspended but they can welcome back Liam Henderson from a one-match ban.
Very few people will expect anything other than a home victory so, in many ways, this is a free hit for Empoli who are continuing to exceed expectations of their own.
They will have to go some to match the Atalanta story though.
History
Atalanta completed a league double over Empoli last term, including 2-0 home win, courtesy of goals from Mario Pasalic (penalty) and Ademola Lookman. They also won 3-0 at Empoli last October when Scamacca (two) and Teun Koopmeiners were the men on target.
Of their 20 meetings, Atalanta have won almost half of them (10) with five Empoli successes and a further six draws. Empoli last won at the Gewiss Stadium in May 2022 when Leo Stulac scored the only goal of the game 11 minutes from time to end La Dea’s hopes of European qualification.
Betting Tip
It’s the hosts all the way with Serie A 2024 betting.
Atalanta can be backed in a variety of ways, including 1X2 @ 1.27 and Asian Handicap -1.50 @ 1.90, whereas Empoli are much further out with 1X2 @ 8.40 and Asian Handicap +1.50 @ 2.00.
The draw is on offer @ 5.00, while a re-run of last season’s meeting will pay out @ 5.60 with Correct Score 2-0.
If you fancy a fair few goals, then it’s worth looking at over 2.75 @ 1.92 or, better still, total goal 2-3 @ 2.03 or 4-6 @ 2.84.
A lower scoring affair offers a tidy payday too with total goal 0-1 priced @ 3.80.
I did briefly consider the 1X2 Draw @ 5.00 but think Atalanta will be top for Christmas and my bet is for them to secure a fifth straight win against Azzurri Empolesi.
Having lost only one of 12 top-flight home games versus Empoli, my *** tip is First Half Asian Handicap Atalanta -0.75 @ 2.08.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT))
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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