Premier League: Can Leeds Fight Off the High Flying Seagulls?

Leeds United vs Brighton and Hove Albion

The biggest city in Yorkshire will come to a standstill at 3pm on Saturday, except for the area around Elland Road where Premier League: Leeds United vs Brighton is on the agenda.

We’re two thirds of the way through the campaign and, with just 13 games left to shape your destiny, time is running out at both ends of the table. Leeds United are in a precarious place, just outside the drop zone, while Brighton and Hove Albion are in the hunt for European football, currently in eighth place but with games in hand; three on fourth placed Spurs who are just seven points ahead.  

Leeds appointed Javi Gracia as head coach to steer the club to safety and this, despite the Seagulls’ fine form, is a fixture he will target for points; meanwhile Roberto de Zerbi’s Brighton are sure to be on the front foot, which all adds up to a fascinating battle.  

Leeds come into the game on the back of a 1-0 defeat away to Chelsea last week while Brighton hammered the Hammers 4-0.

Talking Points

Leeds must turn promise into points  

They are outside the Premier League bottom three on goal difference alone but Leeds’ performances have been better than their results in recent weeks. After a poor run in February the Whites rekindled their campaign with a crucial 1-0 victory over Southampton on Gracia’s first game in charge at Elland Road, but they went down by the same score line to Chelsea last Saturday. Graham Potters Blues have been struggling themselves but they have a squad packed with expensive talent and Leeds matched them for much of the game.

With 57 per cent possession, 13 shots to 11 and three to two on target it’s fair to say that Chelsea edged it, and Leeds were unlucky to go home empty handed. But the Whites have been worryingly toothless since top scorer Rodrigo Moreno was injured in an FA Cup win over Accrington Stanley; and in the seven games since the 32 year olds injury Leeds have failed to hit the net on five occasions. Rodrigo has ten league goals to his name and he could be back after the international break, but in the meantime Gracia must rely on his other forwards, Crysencio Summerville, Wilfried Gnonto and maybe Patrick Bamford, who has struggled with injury himself. Jack Harrison, with five assists, can provide the ammunition and Gnonto is a tricky customer but, when the chances come Leeds need to strike.  

Whether Leeds made the right decision with Javi Gracia remains to be seen; he has the players who can pull away from danger, but a defeat on Saturday would be a heavy blow.    

Seagulls are flying even higher with De Zerbi

Under Graham Potter Brighton had built a reputation for attractive football as they established themselves in the top flight, but all too often they lacked a cutting edge. The arrival of former Sassuolo and Shakhtar Donetsk head coach Roberto de Zerbi was greeted with some nerves among the Brighton faithful. But when he took charge for the first time, on 1^st October, he led the team to a 3-3 draw away to Liverpool.  

Since then the club sold top scorer Leandro Trossard but under De Zerbi, they have become more productive and are alongside Manchester City and Arsenal in terms of possession stats. The goals are shared around; Kaoru Mitoma, Alexis MacAllister and Pascal Gross all have six and Solly March has five goals and four assists and, for opposing defences, there are multiple threats to repel.    

History

The Seagulls have had the better of the head to head Leeds United vs Brighton results with 13 victories to six in all meetings since 2004.

Brighton won the return match 1-0, at the Amex Stadium, as Goss hit the winner and recent form favours the Seagulls too; they have won four of the last six and are unbeaten in six matches on the road, while Leeds have lost four of the last six; and the pre-match Leeds United vs Brighton betting odds reflect the form right on the money.

Betting Tip

The Seagulls are odds on at 1.98 to win but the Elland Road crowd will be right up for this game with the hosts are priced at 3.11 and the draw at 3.30.

While De Zerbi’s team will be gunning for all three points it’s a ‘must not lose’ game for the Whites who need to pick up points consistently and I don’t think a 1-1 draw, at SBOTOP odds of 5.80, will be far off the mark.  

 

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